The Court of Auditors unveiled this Thursday an alarming report on the future of the pension system in France, commissioned by François Bayrou to serve as a basis for negotiations between social partners. According to its projections, the deficit would reach 15 billion euros in 2035 and 30 billion in 2045 if no additional reforms are implemented. In 2023, a surplus of 8,5 billion euros was recorded, but this is explained by cyclical effects linked to inflation and the latest reforms. From 2024, the system will be in deficit again, and the trend will worsen in the years to come. The Court also put an end to accusations of a “hidden deficit” in civil servants’ pensions, confirming that their system follows specific rules, but without budgetary opacity.

The main lever for adjustment remains the retirement age. The 2023 reform, which pushed this age back to 64, is expected to generate €10 billion in savings by 2030. If the legal age were lowered to 63, it would cost the system €5,8 billion, while raising it to 65 would save €8,4 billion by 2035. Other measures are being discussed, such as extending the contribution period beyond the 43 years currently required. Adding an extra year would bring in €5,2 billion, while a one-year reduction would increase the deficit by €3,9 billion.

Among the other avenues being explored, the Court suggests a review of the conditions for indexing pensions. Under-indexing pensions by one point compared to inflation would save 2,9 billion by 2025, but this measure would be unpopular with retirees. An increase in contributions could also be considered, although its effects on the economy remain difficult to measure. These technical adjustments, combined with a postponement of the legal retirement age, could help stabilize the system, but at the cost of significant social tensions, reminiscent of the massive mobilizations of 2023 against the previous reform.

With this report, the Court of Auditors highlights the urgency of structural reform and now leaves the responsibility to the social partners. The government assures that it is not imposing anything and hopes that unions and employers will find the solutions themselves to ensure the future of the system. A first “conclave” is planned for the end of next week to launch discussions, but the debate promises to be stormy, as the positions are so far apart between the different organizations. The scale of the project shows that the issue of pensions will remain a hot topic in the months to come.

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