August 2026
21Aug

The Global Transition – The Impact of Demographics and AI on Economic Power

By Seth Benzell, Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Victor Yifan Ye This study deploys a multi-region, dynamic life-cycle, general equilibrium model to assess demography’s impact, through the course of this century, on global development. Our model’s 17 regions encompass more than 150 countries comprising 99% of the world’s population. Output is produced with three labor skill groups and internationally-mobile capital, with each country deciding annually whether to adopt its frontier automation technology. Our model features region-specific fiscal policy, TFP growth, and...

August 21, 2026
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21Aug

Job displacement and the health of older adults: Evidence from China

By Xiaoyun Zhang & Yiyang Luo This paper investigates the long-term consequences of involuntary job displacement on multidimensional health outcomes among middle-aged and older adults in urban China, using the 2014 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS) Life History Questionnaire. To address the endogeneity of job loss, we exploit business closures, position cancellations, and layoffs during the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) reforms in the late 1990s as exogenous labor market shocks and employ Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to control for...

August 21, 2026
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21Aug

Lessons for Retirement Security from Well-Regulated Pensions

By Andrew G. Biggs The near disappearance of traditional defined benefit pensions is often treated as a loss for retirement security. This paper asks a different question: whether workers and employers value guaranteed pension benefits enough to bear their full economic cost. ERISA made private pensions more secure but also more expensive, after which traditional plans declined sharply. Meanwhile, workers with defined contribution accounts generally do not recreate DB features through higher saving, conservative portfolios, or annuitization. These patterns do...

August 21, 2026
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14Aug

Shadow Pensions: An Exploratory Field Study of Informal Old-Age Income Strategies Among Jakarta’s Unregistered Workforce

By Fajrin Andi Muhamad Pratama Indonesia's main old-age insurance program, BPJS Ketenagakerjaan, is built almost entirely around formal employment-yet three in five Indonesian workers are informal, and only a small fraction of them are ever enrolled. National statistics capture the size of that gap well; they say almost nothing about what people actually do instead. I spent three days in Jakarta interviewing market traders and ojek drivers to find out. The results were not quite what I expected going in....

August 14, 2026
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14Aug

Saving for Old Age

By Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, Leora F. Klapper & Georgios A. Panos Countries around the world face a retirement crisis brought on by aging populations, declining birthrates, and fiscal shortfalls. As a result, policy makers increasingly seek to understand retirement savings patterns, a crucial component of the safety net for the elderly. Drawing on the 2014 Global Findex database, which provides individual-level data on the use of financial products in more than 140 countries, this paper examines how adults save for old...

August 14, 2026
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14Aug

The Effect of Regularization Policies for Migrants on the Labor Market

By Puren Demirel This study reviews the labor-market effects of policies aimed at regularizing irregular migrants, with particular emphasis on amnesty programs and access to legal employment. Drawing on the existing literature and country experiences, it examines the mechanisms through which regularization may affect migrants, local workers, employers, and the broader economy. The analysis highlights that the effects of regularization depend strongly on host-country characteristics, including the size of the informal economy, labor-market structure, welfare arrangements, inspection capacity, and geographical...

August 14, 2026
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07Aug

Bequest-Motivated Decumulation of UK Pensions for Non-Domiciled Individuals: A Monte-Carlo and HJB Approach

By Sebastien Hitier We study the optimal decumulation of a UK pension pot for an expatriate holder who is tax-resident in a jurisdiction that does not tax investment income or gifts. Because the pension wrapper offers no ongoing tax shelter to heirs, the holder's sole objective is to minimise the expected present value of lifetime taxes-personal income tax on drawdowns plus inheritance tax at death. We formulate the problem as a stochastic optimal control with Gompertz-Makeham mortality, progressive UK taxation,...

August 7, 2026
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07Aug

Deaccumulation in India: The Role of Equity, Debt and Annuities in Retirement Income

By Ravi Saraogi & Pushpinder Singh Framework: We adopt a partial annuitisation framework in which a fraction of the retirement corpus is used to purchase an immediate life annuity, while the remainder is retained in a self-managed portfolio. Using a bootstrap Monte Carlo approach with Indian equity, debt and inflation data, we simulate retirement paths across four portfolio allocations, three annuitisation levels (0, 20 and 40 per cent) and four annuity payout rates (6, 7, 8 and 9 per cent)....

August 7, 2026
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07Aug

AI, Fiscal Space, and Social Protection in Four Latin American Economies: ;A Scenario-based Threshold Framework

By Vicenzo Scavino Can fiscal space from artificial intelligence finance recurrent social protection in Latin America? This paper develops a prespecified, scenario-based feasibility test that translates an AI dividend into income and fiscal capture, compares it with policy costs, and applies debt-consistency and persistence screens. For Peru, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico, no deterministic crossing occurs under non-stress scenarios because translation and capture jointly fall short. Crossings arise only under diagnostic disruption: Chilean guaranteed minimum income is conditionally feasible and debt-consistent;...

August 7, 2026
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July 2026
24Jul

Transductive infrastructure: The role of ICTs in the UK and EU’s policy initiatives on financial literacy

By Jing Wang & Jiuheng He Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have become central to public-facing policy programs, yet they remain undertheorized, only treated as either instruments or objects of such policies. This paper argues that ICTs in such programs operate as transductive infrastructures, a delivery chain not only transmitting policy information but also defining the intentions and consequences of the stakeholders. Through a comparative analysis of three recent financial literacy initiatives: the UK's Money and Pensions Service, the European...

July 24, 2026
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