October 2026

Optimal Transition Schedules for Retirement Age Increases: Welfare and Intergenerational Fairness

By Yaodi Yong, Jinggong Zhang & Xiaobai Zhu In response to demographic shifts such as declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy, many countries are raising the full retirement age (FRA). This paper develops a novel optimization framework for designing FRA increase schedules, explicitly balancing the minimization of aggregate welfare loss across affected generations with intergenerational fairness considerations. Within a continuous-time framework, we model welfare loss through disutility functions applied to actuarial losses generated by pension reforms, while incorporating smoothness...

US. Social Security Announces 3.6 Percent Benefit Increase for 2027

The Social Security Administration (SSA) today announced a 3.6 percent benefit increase for 2027. Social Security benefits include Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI), and Supplemental Security Income (SSI). On average, Social Security retirement benefits will increase by $75 per month. Nearly 72 million Social Security beneficiaries will see a 3.6 percent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) beginning in January 2027. Increased payments to about 7.3 million people receiving SSI will begin on December 31, 2026. (Note: Some people receive both Social...

US. How Retirees on Different Incomes Rely on Social Security

If Congress doesn’t act, more than 60 million Americans could see their Social Security income drop by nearly a quarter in six years. That’s when Social Security’s retirement trust fund is expected to run dry, and incoming revenue would be enough to pay only 78 percent benefits, reducing every retiree’s paycheck by 22 percent. The program, which President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed into law in 1935 during the Great Depression, is not in danger of completely running out of money. While...

Retirement Security in the US Is Stuck in the Past

By Catherine Thurtle Open a retirement statement today, and the numbers look a little better than in 2020. Open the news, and the ground looks a lot less steady. That gap sums up where retirement security stands in 2026. Fewer than six in 10 US residents (59%) agree they’re currently building, or have already built, a big enough retirement nest egg. That’s according to Life and Money: Retirement Security in the USA, new research fielded by The Harris Poll on behalf...

September 2026

US. Why Pensions Still Provide Key Income for Many Retirees Even as Access Declines

Traditional pensions, where employers guarantee their workers a fixed monthly paycheck for life in retirement based on their salary and years of service, are widely considered a thing of the past. But the reality is more complicated. While these highly sought-after defined benefit (DB) plans are no longer an option for most of today's workers, for retirees, they remain a common source of income. Pensions Are Much Less Common for Workers Today Only 29% of American workers have an employer-sponsored DB pension,...

Redistribution through Taxes or Pensions? Optimal Income Tax and Pension Progressivity

By Burkhard Heer & Mark M. Trede We develop a medium-scale overlapping-generations model with endogenous labor supply and skill premium to study optimal income redistribution using progressive labor income taxes and pensions. The model is calibrated to the four countries USA, Great Britain, Italy and Germany which differ substantially in their tax and pension systems, demographics, and skill shares among workers. Optimal pension benefits are proportional to lifetime contributions in all four countries, while the optimal degree of income tax...

Spain. The Social Security chains a surplus of 9.162 million until July thanks to the strong advance of contributions

The Social Security closed the first seven months of the year with a positive result of 9.162 billion euros, equivalent to 0.5% of GDP. This balance is obtained after total revenues of 154.231 billion euros, 7.8% more than a year earlier, against expenses of 145.069 billion, which increased by 7%, according to data released this Friday by the Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration. Between January and July, the system obtained 109.913 billion euros in income from social contributions,...

Redistribution through Taxes or Pensions? Optimal Income Tax and Pension Progressivity

By Burkhard Heer & Mark M. Trede We develop a medium-scale overlapping-generations model with endogenous labor supply and skill premium to study optimal income redistribution using progressive labor income taxes and pensions. The model is calibrated to the four countries USA, Great Britain, Italy and Germany which differ substantially in their tax and pension systems, demographics, and skill shares among workers. Optimal pension benefits are proportional to lifetime contributions in all four countries, while the optimal degree of income tax...

Will Europe dismantle the welfare state? Pension cuts and healthcare collapse threat looms

The economic decline of the once-mighty West is becoming so obvious that even leading economists are starting to acknowledge that the Western economic model faces severe structural problems. For decades, Western media presented the economies of the US and Europe as benchmarks of growth and prosperity, backed by robust markets, high returns, and a generous welfare state capable of funding pensions, healthcare, and social benefits. Today, however, the picture has shifted dramatically. Those same media outlets now admit that...

August 2026

The Effect of Regularization Policies for Migrants on the Labor Market

By Puren Demirel This study reviews the labor-market effects of policies aimed at regularizing irregular migrants, with particular emphasis on amnesty programs and access to legal employment. Drawing on the existing literature and country experiences, it examines the mechanisms through which regularization may affect migrants, local workers, employers, and the broader economy. The analysis highlights that the effects of regularization depend strongly on host-country characteristics, including the size of the informal economy, labor-market structure, welfare arrangements, inspection capacity, and geographical...