When States Break Promises: Informal Insurance Responses to Pension Reform
By Alina Malkova When governments expand pension systems, families reduce intergenerational transfers. This paper tests the reverse: do families substitute back toward informal insurance when governments renege on pension promises? I study Russia’s 2014 funded pension freeze, which eliminated future contributions for workers born after 1967, using RLMS panel data (2010–2023) and a cohort difference-in-differences design. Affected households increased financial transfers to adult children by 3.5 percentage points under a conservative age×year fixed effects specification and by 6.5 percentage points...
