August 2026
21Aug

The Global Transition – The Impact of Demographics and AI on Economic Power

By Seth Benzell, Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Victor Yifan Ye This study deploys a multi-region, dynamic life-cycle, general equilibrium model to assess demography’s impact, through the course of this century, on global development. Our model’s 17 regions encompass more than 150 countries comprising 99% of the world’s population. Output is produced with three labor skill groups and internationally-mobile capital, with each country deciding annually whether to adopt its frontier automation technology. Our model features region-specific fiscal policy, TFP growth, and...

August 21, 2026
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14Aug

The Effect of Regularization Policies for Migrants on the Labor Market

By Puren Demirel This study reviews the labor-market effects of policies aimed at regularizing irregular migrants, with particular emphasis on amnesty programs and access to legal employment. Drawing on the existing literature and country experiences, it examines the mechanisms through which regularization may affect migrants, local workers, employers, and the broader economy. The analysis highlights that the effects of regularization depend strongly on host-country characteristics, including the size of the informal economy, labor-market structure, welfare arrangements, inspection capacity, and geographical...

August 14, 2026
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07Aug

Bequest-Motivated Decumulation of UK Pensions for Non-Domiciled Individuals: A Monte-Carlo and HJB Approach

By Sebastien Hitier We study the optimal decumulation of a UK pension pot for an expatriate holder who is tax-resident in a jurisdiction that does not tax investment income or gifts. Because the pension wrapper offers no ongoing tax shelter to heirs, the holder's sole objective is to minimise the expected present value of lifetime taxes-personal income tax on drawdowns plus inheritance tax at death. We formulate the problem as a stochastic optimal control with Gompertz-Makeham mortality, progressive UK taxation,...

August 7, 2026
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04Aug

Japan proposes tougher income, pension rules for permanent residency

Japan’s immigration agency on Aug 4 proposed tougher requirements for granting permanent residency to foreigners, including requiring applicants to maintain income above the average for Japanese households and a certain level of projected pension benefits. The proposed guidelines are part of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s push to create an “orderly society” in which Japanese and foreign nationals coexist while cracking down on illegal activities. The Immigration Services Agency will solicit public comments before implementing the new rules from April 2027. Permanent residents can...

August 4, 2026
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July 2026
30Jul

Population Aging Is Here. Immigration Can Offer Half an Answer.

Population aging has become a defining challenge of our time and is galloping ahead faster than predicted. In China, births have now fallen to levels not seen since 1949. But many countries are getting old before they grow rich: Comparable declines are being seen in Latin America, the Middle East, and North Africa. A shrinking workforce means less money to go around and increasing difficulties shouldering the costs of covering health care and pensions for retirees. In many fast-aging, wealthier...

July 30, 2026
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01Jul

Who will make up the new U.S. population?

As the United States of America at 250 looks forward to the next 250 years and beyond, it is vital that we address the unanswered existential question that lies at the heart of our national identity: Who will be the new Americans? Historically, the policy focus has been on addressing the question of who we do not want. Certainly, President Donald Trump is determined to block unwanted immigrants at the border so they cannot enter the country, and deport unwanted...

July 1, 2026
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October 2025
08Oct

The U.S.-Born labor force will shrink over the next decade

By Josh Bivens It is often underrecognized how much population aging is currently reducing the growth rate of the U.S. labor force and will continue to pull it down in coming decades. The share of the population that is over the age of 65 (when labor force participation tends to take a steep fall on average) is rising rapidly. This share was 12.4% in 2007, 17.9% in 2024, and will hit 21.2% by 2035 (CBO 2025b). A recent EPI report...

October 8, 2025
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July 2025
29Jul

Why do many Swiss people choose to emigrate in old age?

Having worked their entire lives, paying into the system and forgoing vacations, some Swiss are shocked to discover they can't afford life in Switzerland after retirement. More and more retirees are choosing to leave their homeland – not in search of adventure, but out of sheer necessity. "After working hard for so many years, pensioners are being pushed to the margins of society. When it comes to its own people, I no longer see Switzerland as a social country." State pensions...

July 29, 2025
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June 2025
13Jun

Immigration and Adult Children’s Care for Elderly Parents: Evidence from Western Europe

By Andrea Berlanda, Elisabetta Lodigiani & Lorenzo Rocco In this paper, we use the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), complemented with register data on the share of the foreign population in the European regions, to examine the effects of migration on the level of informal care provided by children to their senior parents. Our main results show that migration decreases informal care among daughters with a university degree, while it increases the provision of informal care...

June 13, 2025
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February 2025
07Feb

Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization

By David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, Maggie R. Jones & Bradley Setzler This chapter analyzes the distinct adjustment paths of U.S. labor markets (places) and U.S. workers (people) to increased Chinese import competition during the 2000s. Using comprehensive register data for 2000–2019, we document that employment levels more than fully rebound in trade-exposed places after 2010, while employment-to-population ratios remain depressed and manufacturing employment further atrophies. The adjustment of places to trade shocks is generational: affected areas recover primarily by adding workers to...

February 7, 2025
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