May 2026

China now home to more people over 65 than children, official survey finds

For the first time in records dating back to 1949, China is now home to more people aged 65 and above than children, the latest official data showed, underscoring the country’s deepening demographic pressure. By November last year, 15.87 per cent of China’s roughly 1.4 billion-strong population was aged at least 65, compared with 15.25 per cent aged between 0 to 14, according to the results of a nationwide sample survey released late last week. That meant China’s traditional family-based model...

March 2026

Ageing like China: China’s pension reform debate enters a new phase

China is undergoing a sharp demographic transition: rapid population ageing, a shrinking labour force, persistently low fertility, and continued urbanisation. Using an overlapping-generations framework, this column shows that the demographic transition is a joint growth and fiscal headwind: the economy slows just as ageing-related spending pressures intensify. A recent retirement age reform mitigates some of the economic and fiscal pressures. However, a credible long-run strategy likely needs a comprehensive approach: sustainability levers, targeted adequacy improvements, and continued efforts to...

China outlines strategy to address population aging

China will advance a proactive national strategy in response to population aging, according to the government work report submitted on Thursday to the country's top legislature for deliberation. The report prioritizes elderly care services in rural areas. Minimum basic old-age benefits for rural and non-working urban residents will be raised, and the country's unified national management system for basic old-age insurance funds will be scaled up. The government will work to increase the supply of public-interest elderly care services, according to...

Reform unlocks China’s sil­ver dividend

In a tech­no­logy park in Shang­hai’s Xuhui dis­trict, 58-year-old Zhang Wei is fine-tun­ing a drone used for agri­cul­tural inspec­tion. With 35 years of exper­i­ence as an air­craft mech­anic, he remains one of the most reli­able tech­ni­cians in the fact­ory. Under China’s pre­vi­ous retire­ment frame­work, however, Zhang would soon be expec­ted to step aside, begin draw­ing a pen­sion and leave the work­force. But Zhang is not ready to hang up his boots. “This is when exper­i­ence mat­ters most,” he says. “If...

February 2026

Population Aging and Pension Reforms in China

By Boele Bonthuis, Yongquan Cao & Christoph Freudenberg China is experiencing rapid population aging and a declining workforce, posing significant economic and fiscal challenges, especially to the pension system. This paper examines the evolution of China’s pension system, assesses its gaps relative to international peers, and evaluates the macro-fiscal implications of population aging and various pension reforms. Using a calibrated overlapping generations model that explicitly incorporates the rural–urban disparities, we project that population aging alone can slow annual GDP growth by...

As China Ages, a Pension Crisis Looms

On October 23, 2025, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Chinese Communist Party Central Committee concluded with approval of the 15th Five-Year Plan, covering the period from 2026 to 2030. Chinese leaders have described this plan as a “crucial link” in the country’s long-term goal of achieving fundamental modernization by 2035. Yet beneath these ambitions lies a structural challenge that threatens to erode many of its gains. Amid rapid economic growth and ambitions for a highly modernized industrial system,...

January 2026

Pension Schemes, Healthcare Use, and Health: Evidence from China

By Zeen He Using a non-parametric fuzzy regression discontinuity design and leveraging data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), this paper explores the impact of public and private pension schemes on health service utilization and health outcomes among urban and rural individuals in China. Our estimates show that receipt of public pensions, particularly the Urban Employee Pension Scheme (UEPS) and Public Employee Pension Scheme (PEPS), significantly improves selfreported health, mental health (CES-D scores), and physical health (ADL...

China’s birth rate hits record low as population continues to shrink

China's birth rates sunk to a record low in 2025, despite the government rolling out a spate of incentives to boost it, as the country's population fell for the fourth straight year. Government data on Monday showed that the country's birth rate fell to 5.63 per 1,000 people – a record low since the Communist Party took power in 1949 – while its death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000 people, the highest since 1968. Its population fell 3.39 million to...

How our fear of aging is speeding it up

After I turned 60 last October, I became consumed with thoughts of mortality. I worried that I was now on a fast track toward ill health, retirement blues and forgetful conversations filled with non-sequiturs. It’s not hard to see why. In 2023, the American Psychological Association wrote that “ageism is one of the last socially acceptable prejudices” in American culture. From shelves lined with anti-aging products, to punchlines about getting older to workplace bias, the message is clear: entering...

Without pension reform, China is leaving its rural elderly out in the cold

“Rural heating problems in Hebei cannot wait any longer” declared a recent report in Farmers’ Daily. It described a disturbing reality in parts of northern China: elderly villagers who would rather shiver through freezing temperatures than turn on their heaters, because they simply cannot afford the cost. For many urban readers, this may sound implausible. For millions of rural elderly, it is routine. On the surface, the problem appears to be a side effect of China’s well-intentioned environmental reforms. Beginning...