October 2026

The Duration Gap: Value-at-Risk, Interest-Rate Swaps and the 2026 Losses of Chile’s Most Conservative Pension Fund

By Alfredo Merlet Between January and September 2026, Fund E, the most conservative of Chile's five mandatory pension fund types, lost about ten per cent in real terms, its second-worst result on record, while the funds' positions in foreign interest-rate derivatives swung to a reported valuation loss of about US$7.7 billion. This article asks why standard Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures did not warn of the loss. Using daily unit values for the seven pension fund administrators (AFPs) from January 2015 to...

Optimal Transition Schedules for Retirement Age Increases: Welfare and Intergenerational Fairness

By Yaodi Yong, Jinggong Zhang & Xiaobai Zhu In response to demographic shifts such as declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy, many countries are raising the full retirement age (FRA). This paper develops a novel optimization framework for designing FRA increase schedules, explicitly balancing the minimization of aggregate welfare loss across affected generations with intergenerational fairness considerations. Within a continuous-time framework, we model welfare loss through disutility functions applied to actuarial losses generated by pension reforms, while incorporating smoothness...

When Retirement Faces Climate Risks: Linking Socio-Economic Pathways with Financial Outcomes

By Stephanie Neal & Laurens Swinkels Standard analyses of retirement adequacy focus on financial metrics such as contribution rates and replacement ratios, while climate scenario studies typically emphasize broad macroeconomic outcomes. Neither approach, however, directly addresses what matters most to individuals: the quality of life in retirement. Retirement security under climate change is inherently multidimensional, shaped not only by financial wealth but also by health systems, infrastructure, environmental conditions, and social resilience. We develop an integrated framework that combines qualitative...

Chile y la evolución del pilar de ahorro individual en el sistema de jubilaciones y pensiones

Por Guillermo Montt Esta nota rescata cómo el componente de ahorro individual ha pasado de ser el pilar único y principal del sistema de jubilaciones y pensiones a uno dentro de un esquema complementario de componentes para avanzar la cobertura, suficiencia, sostenibilidad y también mayor equidad en el sistema. La nota también resalta cómo las reformas han ido perfeccionando los mecanismos de competencia y elección y cómo estos procesos de cambio deben considerarse tanto procesos técnicos como políticos con una visión...

Reforma del Sistema de Pensiones de México Posterior a 2020: Desde una Perspectiva Legal-Financiera Comparativa

Por Juan Carlos Ibarra Torres  & Ana Bertha Solano Navarro  El envejecimiento demográfico, la informalidad laboral relativamente alta y el bajo grado de densidades de contribución contribuyen a algunos problemas estructurales en el sistema de pensiones de México. La reforma de la ley de 2020 estableció las cifras para la contribución, semanas de contribuciones y una pensión mínima garantizada. Fuente Ibero Ciencias 

Panorama económico de América Latina y el Caribe. Aprovechando la transición de la IA

Por Banco Mundial El crecimiento en América Latina y el Caribe sigue siendo modesto. Se proyecta que el PIB regional se expanda un 2,2 por ciento en 2026, en línea con el 2,4 por ciento de 2025, una señal de resiliencia para absorber los choques externos. Por debajo del promedio regional, las trayectorias divergen. Los países que han adoptado decisiones de política acertadas y duraderas están logrando resultados más sólidos: un mayor crecimiento, más inversión y mayor confianza de los...

Reformas tributarias y mercado laboral en una economía de mercado emergente

Por Catalina Granda-Carvajal & Jesús E. Morales-Piñero Los altos costos laborales no salariales, especialmente los impuestos sobre la nómina, son un obstáculo para la creación de empleo y la formalización del mercado laboral en los países en desarrollo. Este documento evalúa las implicaciones macroeconómicas de la reforma tributaria colombiana de 2012, que redujo los impuestos sobre la nómina en 13,5 puntos porcentuales con el fin de fomentar el empleo formal. Para ello, se desarrolla y estima un modelo de equilibrio...

The impact of pension on the health behavior of elderly rural residents: evidence from China

By Rui Li, Duanyang Gao & Yuying Yang Background Unhealthy behavior is an important factor threatening the health of older rural residents in China. We examine the effects of receiving pension on elderly rural residents’ health behavior (namely conscious control of sugar, salt, and edible oil intake, as well as learning health or wellness knowledge), also including effect heterogeneity by income level and gender. Methods Using China Rural Revitalization Survey (CRRS) in 2020, we used the policy rule of the...

Retirement Security in the US Is Stuck in the Past

By Catherine Thurtle Open a retirement statement today, and the numbers look a little better than in 2020. Open the news, and the ground looks a lot less steady. That gap sums up where retirement security stands in 2026. Fewer than six in 10 US residents (59%) agree they’re currently building, or have already built, a big enough retirement nest egg. That’s according to Life and Money: Retirement Security in the USA, new research fielded by The Harris Poll on behalf...

2026 Global Climate Investing Survey

By Lucian Peppelenbos Investor support for prioritizing climate change is rising again, as concerns around energy security accelerate the renewable energy transition, and as the physical effects of global warming are increasingly felt, the Robeco Global Climate Investing Survey 2026 shows. The sixth annual survey of 300 investors shows they are realistic about climate targets, with most forecasting a ‘too little, too late’ scenario that cannot achieve the Paris goals. Yet there is also resilience, as most investors are still prepared...