The Path to 2075 — The Positive Story of Global Aging (Daly/Njie/Allen)
By Jan Hatzius, Joseph Briggs, Kevin Daly, Johan Allen, Sarah Dong & Megan Peters
The global population is aging, driven by a combination of increased longevity and declining fertility. This phenomenon is most pronounced in developed (DM) economies, where the ‘working-age ratio’ (ages 15-64) has already decreased from 67% in 2000 to 63%, and is projected to fall to 57% by 2075. In emerging economies, the 15-64 share is close to a peak (66%) and is expected to decline to 61% over the next 50 years. This process of aging is often depicted as a ‘demographic time bomb,’ implying rising dependency ratios (i.e., a fall in total employment rates) and declining GDP per capita.
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