The population of the 27-nation European Union will peak in 2029 before falling in the coming decades, according to a report published Tuesday that spotlights the major challenges the bloc faces from an aging population.

Today, there are 450.6 million people, but researchers say this will peak at 453.3 million in 2029 before a slow, long-term decline.

The population will fall to 398.8 million people by 2100, an overall drop of 11.7 percent and a level last experienced in the 1970s.

Europeans are living longer than ever before thanks to vastly improved health care and better living and social conditions.

But an aging population poses challenges for society and the EU economy, and while migration could help, it’s not the fix Europe might hope for.

The EU executive’s Joint Research Centre said life expectancy at birth reached 81.5 years in 2024.

By 2050, nearly one in three EU residents will be 65 or older, compared with one in five today, the center said.

By 2100, life expectancy could exceed 90 years for women and 86 for men.

Such trends present “significant challenges,” the EU said, including labor shortages, strained public budgets and pressure on care and education systems.

It is, however, not all negative, as the report points to the rise of the “silver economy”—a growing market for goods and services for older citizens.

‘Migration is a necessity’

Migration can help offset some effects of Europe’s demographic change, the researchers said, but it would have a limited impact on “fully” addressing the challenges posed by an aging population.

But as fertility rates fall, migration counterbalances the negative effects of an aging population and labor force contraction, the report said.

“Migration is a necessity,” EU commissioner Dubravka Suica told reporters.

Fewer babies are being born to each woman in Europe, a decline that has been steady since the 1960s.

The fertility rate fell to 1.34 children per woman in 2024, well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to keep the population stable without migration.

The median age of a European was 44.9 in 2025, and there are major disparities between EU countries. Ireland is relatively young, with a median age of 39.6 years, while Italy’s was 49.1 years.

“We are living longer, healthier lives than ever before—one of our greatest achievements. But demographic change is reshaping our societies, our economies and our labor markets,” Suica said in a statement.

“We must act now to turn this transformation into an opportunity,” she added.

The EU insists the bloc must boost productivity and cut unemployment to offset the effects of a shrinking workforce.

Currently, around 20 percent of working-age Europeans are outside the labor force, the report said, while some 8 million young people are neither in employment, education nor training.

The situation is particular to Europe, as the global population is not falling.

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