Why Is Japan’s Population Decreasing?
Japan’s population has been declining steadily since 2005 primarily because of a decrease in births, which have consistently been lower than the number of deaths per year. The birth rate in Japan dropped from about 19 per 1,000 people in 1970 to just 6 in 2023. Until the mid-1970s, the total fertility rate remained above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, the threshold needed for population stability, but that rate declined to a record low of 1.15 in 2024.
Another factor has been a gradual shift in family formation and the timing of childbirth. Marriage rates in Japan have declined steadily from about 1 million marriages annually in the 1970s to fewer than 500,000 by 2023. Consequently, more people have delayed having children, as the average maternal age at first birth rose from the mid-20s during the 1970s to 31 in 2023.
The total fertility rate (TFR) measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her childbearing years and is a key indicator of whether a given region’s population is likely to rise or fall. A TFR of 2.1, which is known as the replacement rate, is needed for a population to stay stable in the long run. When TFR is below 2.1 for extended periods, populations eventually tend to age and decrease.
Japan’s population entered a sustained phase of decline after 2015, when it was estimated at about 127 million people. In 2020 its population dropped to 126.15 million, nearly 1 million people fewer than in 2015. By 2024, the population had fallen further, to 123.8 million people. There has also been a marked shift in the country’s age structure. In 2006 Japan became the world’s first “super-aged society,” with more than 20 percent of its population age 65 years or older. By 2024, that share had increased to about 30 percent, and children ages 0–14 years accounted for just 11.2 percent of the population, the smallest share in Japan’s recorded history. According to official projections, Japan’s population will continue to shrink in the mid-2020s and beyond, falling to about 87 million by 2070, with nearly 40 percent of the population age 65 years or older.
These trends may be linked to several structural features of Japan’s labor market. For instance, the country’s work culture has come under criticism for its long work hours, in some cases exceeding 60 hours per week. Although the Japanese government has made efforts to cap overtime work and increase work-life balance, extended working hours remain common in many sectors. Despite some companies having introduced limits, enforcement has been uneven and overtime work remains widespread. This is believed to have contributed to a skewed work-life balance, in which parents find it increasingly difficult to balance employment with raising children.
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