Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier in Contemporary Conflicts: Pathways, Evidence, and Legal-Policy Responses

By Hope Tendo This paper examines climate change as a “threat multiplier” in contemporary conflicts by analysing its causal pathways, empirical support, and the legal-policy responses required to mitigate associated security risks. It argues that climate change rarely operates as a direct driver of violence but instead intensifies existing socio-economic, political, and institutional vulnerabilities. The study evaluates scholarly and policy literature demonstrating that climatic stress interacts with fragile governance, contested land and resource tenure, livelihood insecurity, migration pressures, and state...