By Stephanie Neal & Laurens Swinkels

Standard analyses of retirement adequacy focus on financial metrics such as contribution rates and replacement ratios, while climate scenario studies typically emphasize broad macroeconomic outcomes. Neither approach, however, directly addresses what matters most to individuals: the quality of life in retirement. Retirement security under climate change is inherently multidimensional, shaped not only by financial wealth but also by health systems, infrastructure, environmental conditions, and social resilience. We develop an integrated framework that combines qualitative climate scenario narratives with quantitative macro-financial modelling to assess retirement outcomes in the United Kingdom through 2050. We construct three internally consistent SSP-RCP-based scenarios and translate them into indicators of retirees’ lived experience alongside climate-damage-adjusted macroeconomic trajectories, which inform long-term asset return assumptions and retirement income projections. The results show that financial adequacy metrics alone can misrepresent retirement resilience. Relatively small differences in expected investment returns can coexist with large divergences in longevity, health, service reliability, and everyday living conditions. By linking narratives with numbers, the framework clarifies how socioeconomic environments and financial outcomes interact, providing a more decision-relevant assessment of climate-related retirement risks for pension funds, long-horizon investors, and policymakers.

Source SSRN