By Hope Tendo

This paper examines climate change as a “threat multiplier” in contemporary conflicts by analysing its causal pathways, empirical support, and the legal-policy responses required to mitigate associated security risks. It argues that climate change rarely operates as a direct driver of violence but instead intensifies existing socio-economic, political, and institutional vulnerabilities. The study evaluates scholarly and policy literature demonstrating that climatic stress interacts with fragile governance, contested land and resource tenure, livelihood insecurity, migration pressures, and state fragility to increase the likelihood and severity of conflict. It identifies key pathways through which climate stress contributes to insecurity, including farmer–herder conflicts, inter-communal violence, climate-induced displacement and urban unrest, the strengthening of non-state armed groups, maladaptive climate policies, state repression following climate-related protests, and disputes over transboundary natural resources.

The paper further argues that the threat-multiplier thesis is analytically useful only when grounded in clearly defined mediating mechanisms and complemented by the concept of “threat minimisers,” namely institutional, legal, and policy interventions that reduce vulnerability and prevent escalation. Drawing on international policy frameworks and regional security practice, the study proposes conflict-sensitive adaptation, inclusive resource governance, strengthened local dispute-resolution institutions, protection frameworks for climate-induced displacement, integration of climate risk into peace and security governance, and cooperative transboundary resource management as essential responses. It concludes that effective climate-security strategies should prioritise governance reform, social inclusion, and resilience-building rather than securitised responses, thereby addressing the structural conditions through which climate change amplifies conflict risks.

Source SSRN