President Trump and Senate Democrats reportedly reached a funding agreement on Thursday night to avoid a partial government shutdown, but a lot of elements need to fall into place in a very short period to avoid a shutdown.

According to Politico, Trump and the Democrats have agreed to separate out the Department of Homeland Security (which includes Immigration and Customs Enforcement) from the larger spending bill moving through Congress, and approve that bill, along with a short-term continuing resolution to fund Homeland Security.

But such a move would not only have to get the approval of the full Senate, it would also have to be approved by the House, which is currently out on recess. With tight margins in both chambers, it would take only a few members from either party to throw a wrench in the process.

“I am working hard with Congress to ensure that we are able to fully fund the Government, without delay,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “Hopefully, both Republicans and Democrats will give a very much needed Bipartisan ‘YES’ Vote.”

The events over the past week significantly changed the likelihood that the federal government is heading towards another shutdown, although this time it would only involve certain agencies. So where do things stand and which agencies would be impacted?

Congress faces a Jan. 30 deadline (by midnight Friday) to enact the remaining appropriations bills for fiscal year 2026 or else the respective government agencies that have not received their funding for the year would be forced to shut down beginning Jan. 31. Note that FY 2026 started on Oct. 1, 2025, and ends on Sept. 30, 2026.

These agencies include Defense, Education, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Labor, State, Transportation, and Treasury. The agencies that are not affected include Agriculture, Commerce, Energy, Interior, Justice and Veterans Affairs. This is because their funding was enacted previously in other funding bills.

Just a week ago, the talk of a shutdown was not on the horizon, but that changed after the deadly shooting(s) in Minneapolis, after which numerous Democrats called for changes to the Department of Homeland Security — particularly to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) — before voting on the consolidated appropriations bill (H.R. 7148) that includes funding for the remaining agencies.

The House has already approved this bill (and is currently in recess for the week), but the U.S. Senate on Thursday failed in a 45-55 vote to move forward with the bill (including eight Republicans who voted with the Democrats). In the Senate, it takes 60 votes to limit debate, meaning it will take all Republicans and at least seven Democrats (or Independents) to move forward.

As noted above, while President Trump and Senate Democrats agreed on a tentative process, there are still a number of hurdles to overcome. If the Senate strips out the Homeland Security portion, the House would then have to approve what the Senate sends back — but the chamber is currently scheduled to be out until Monday. With so many moving parts, it seems likely (though not certain) that Congress will need to approve a continuing resolution funding the remaining portions of the government in order to avoid a shutdown and give the lawmakers more time to negotiate.

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