Europe is confronting a demographic problem that is becoming increasingly difficult for governments to ignore: fewer children are being born while the number of older people continues to rise.

The trend is already visible in shrinking schools, ageing communities and growing pressure on pension and healthcare systems.

In the Spanish village of Vilardevos, the change is particularly stark. A primary school originally built for around 700 children now has only 31 pupils. Classes have to be combined because there are not enough students to teach different grades separately.

Many homes in the surrounding area have been abandoned or put up for sale, while most people still living there are elderly.

Vilardevos may be an extreme example, but the broader trend is widespread across Europe and increasingly visible in the United States. Fertility rates have fallen well below the level needed to maintain a population without immigration.

The result is a shrinking pool of young workers at the same time that large generations are approaching retirement.

A detailed report by Politico highlights how governments are struggling to respond to the growing demographic imbalance. The problem is not simply about population numbers.

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It also threatens the financial foundations of modern welfare states, which depend on working-age people paying taxes and social contributions to support pensions and healthcare for older generations.

Why fewer people are having children
A population generally needs a fertility rate of about 2.1 children per woman to maintain its size without immigration. But the European Union’s fertility rate fell to 1.34 in 2024, according to Eurostat. Spain’s rate was even lower at 1.1.

The United States is facing a similar, although somewhat less severe, trend. Its fertility rate fell to 1.6 in 2024, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Experts point to several reasons behind the decline. High housing costs, insecure employment, longer periods of education and changing social attitudes have all contributed. Women are also having children later as they pursue education and careers, while many couples wait until they feel financially and emotionally prepared to start families.

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