Reform unlocks China’s sil­ver dividend

In a tech­no­logy park in Shang­hai’s Xuhui dis­trict, 58-year-old Zhang Wei is fine-tun­ing a drone used for agri­cul­tural inspec­tion. With 35 years of exper­i­ence as an air­craft mech­anic, he remains one of the most reli­able tech­ni­cians in the fact­ory. Under China’s pre­vi­ous retire­ment frame­work, however, Zhang would soon be expec­ted to step aside, begin draw­ing a pen­sion and leave the work­force.

But Zhang is not ready to hang up his boots. “This is when exper­i­ence mat­ters most,” he says. “If I could delay draw­ing my pen­sion and keep work­ing in some capa­city, I could still cre­ate value.”

His story reflects a broader trans­form­a­tion under way in China. As the coun­try enters the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-30), pop­u­la­tion policy is mov­ing bey­ond a focus on sheer num­bers toward high-qual­ity pop­u­la­tion devel­op­ment. With rapid aging, social secur­ity reform is no longer just about fiscal sus­tain­ab­il­ity. It is increas­ingly about how to redefine old age, mobil­ize exper­i­ence, and turn demo­graphic pres­sure into what poli­cy­makers now call a “sil­ver dividend”.

For dec­ades, China’s retire­ment sys­tem fol­lowed a rigid, one-size-fit­sall model. Man­dat­ory retire­ment ages cre­ated a clear bound­ary between work and retire­ment, regard­less of indi­vidual health, skills or pref­er­ences. This effect­ively side­lined many cap­able older work­ers while leav­ing employ­ers short of exper­i­enced labor.

But demo­graph­ics have made this approach unten­able. By the end of 2025, nearly 323 mil­lion Chinese cit­izens were aged 60 or above. With life expect­ancy now at 79 years, retir­ing at 60 can mean almost two dec­ades out­side the work­force. For many older adults, this no longer reflects their health con­di­tions or per­sonal aspir­a­tions.

In Septem­ber 2024, China form­ally launched a reform to gradu­ally raise the stat­utory retire­ment age. The intent was not simply to extend work­ing years, but to intro­duce greater flex­ib­il­ity by gradu­ally adjust­ing retire­ment and pen­sion arrange­ments.

This is a sig­ni­fic­ant shift. For indi­vidu­als, it restores agency: retire­ment becomes a decision rather than an admin­is­trat­ive cutoff. For the pen­sion sys­tem, delayed retire­ment eases fiscal pres­sure while pre­serving human cap­ital. In effect, reform treats exper­i­ence as an asset rather than a liab­il­ity.

If pen­sion provides income secur­ity, med­ical insur­ance serves as a policy lever for improv­ing pop­u­la­tion qual­ity. One not­able change in recent reforms is a move from a sys­tem centered on treat­ment to one focused on main­tain­ing good health.

This dis­tinc­tion is crit­ical in an aging soci­ety, where uncon­trolled chronic ail­ments are often the main driver of soar­ing health­care costs. In Hang­zhou, local author­it­ies are pilot­ing pay­ment mod­els that alloc­ate med­ical insur­ance funds upfront for pre­vent­ive ser­vices, includ­ing reg­u­lar check-ups and chronic dis­ease man­age­ment at the com­munity level.

The logic is straight­for­ward: invest­ing earlier in health reduces expens­ive hos­pit­al­iz­a­tion later. This approach extends healthy life expect­ancy while improv­ing the long-term sus­tain­ab­il­ity of med­ical insur­ance funds. More broadly, it reflects a shift in policy pri­or­it­ies — from pay­ing for ill­ness to man­aging health across the life course of the indi­vidual.

No dis­cus­sion of aging is com­plete without address­ing the “sand­wich gen­er­a­tion”. Li Ting, a 35-year-old project man­ager in Beijing, juggles a demand­ing job, a school-age child, and a father recov­er­ing from sur­gery.

“There are days I want to quit,” she admits. “If social insur­ance could take care of my father’s daily needs, I could focus on my work — and even con­sider hav­ing a second child.”

Her pre­dic­a­ment high­lights another quiet but cru­cial reform: long-term care insur­ance. Often called China’s “sixth social insur­ance,” it is being piloted in sev­eral cit­ies across the coun­try. Its func­tion is not simply to provide cash, but to pur­chase pro­fes­sional care ser­vices when eld­erly people become dis­abled.

The mac­roe­co­nomic logic is com­pel­ling. As the work­ing-age pop­u­la­tion shrinks, China can­not afford to have mil­lions of prime-age work­ers exit the labor mar­ket to provide full­time fam­ily care. By social­iz­ing care respons­ib­il­it­ies, long-term care insur­ance effect­ively pro­tects pro­ductiv­ity. What appears to be wel­fare is, in fact, a labor-mar­ket sta­bil­izer. Its nation­wide expan­sion dur­ing the 15th Five-Year Plan period is widely anti­cip­ated.

 

 

 

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