February 2017

Tailored Aid for a Tailored Age?

By David Wheeler In this short essay, senior fellow David Wheeler compares the world’s foreign assistance architecture to how the rest of the world operates in the digital age. He suggests that multilateral and bilateral transactions from one behemoth to another (B2B) may be stuck in the past now that technology can and should create more person-to-person (P2P) foreign aid programs. The foreign assistance world, he argues, should learn from the worlds of business, entertainment, and interpersonal communications, which are fragmenting...

The Effect of Workplace Pensions on Household Saving: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Taiwan

By Tzu-Ting Yang Population aging causes financial imbalance in pay-as-you-go public pension programs.To remedy this problem while ensuring the adequacy of retirement savings for employees, many countries complement or substitute for public pensions by regulating workplace pensions. This paper exploits a pension reform in Taiwan that has mandated, since 2005, that all private-sector employers contribute at least 6% of wages to employees' individual pension accounts monthly. I use the workers in the unaffected sector as a comparison group and employ...

Technical Review Panel for the Pension Insurance Modeling System (PIMS)

By Olivia S. Mitchell, Christopher Geczy, Robert Novy-Marx, Raimond Maurer, Donald E. Fuerst, Christopher Bone, Donald J. Segal, Martin G. Clarke, Frank J. Fabozzi, Deborah Lucas & David F. Babbel In April of 2013, the Pension Research Council of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania convened a Technical Review Panel, comprising ten experts whose task it was to review the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation’s (PBGC) Pension Insurance Modeling System (PIMS), including inputs, outputs, and model assumptions. The review...

Retirement Security: Better Information on Income Replacement Rates Needed to Help Workers Plan for Retirement

By Charles Jeszeck, Kimberley Granger, Jennifer Gregory, Melinda Bowman & Amrita Sen What GAO Found: Household spending patterns varied by age, with mid-career households (those aged 45-49) spending more than older households. For example, according to 2013 survey data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), mid-career households spent an estimated average of around $58,500, while young retiree households (those aged 65-69) spent about 20 percent less. While the share of spending was consistent for some categories, other categories had...

Lessons for Public Pensions from Utah’s Move to Pension Choice

By Robert L. Clark, Emma Hanson & Olivia S. Mitchell This paper explores what happened when the state of Utah moved away from its traditional defined benefit pension. Instead, it offered new hires a choice between a conventional defined contribution plan, versus a hybrid plan option having both a guaranteed benefit component and a defined contribution plan shifting investment risk to employees. We show that some 60 percent of new hires failed to make any active choice and, as a...

Workplace-Linked Pensions for an Aging Demographic

By Olivia S. Mitchell & John Piggott Pensions and population aging intersect in two ways. First, demographic change threatens the sustainability of traditional pay-as-you-go social security pensions, leaving workplace-linked pensions with a greater role in retirement provision. Second, as the Baby Boom generation enters retirement, new challenges arise around its retirement support. This chapter reviews some of the implications of population aging for workplace pensions in this new environment, outlines market considerations important for workplace-related pension design for the future,...

Optimal Social Security Claiming Behavior under Lump Sum Incentives: Theory and Evidence

By Raimond Maurer, Olivia S. Mitchell, Ralph Rogalla & Tatjana Schimetschek People who delay claiming Social Security receive higher lifelong benefits upon retirement. We survey individuals on their willingness to delay claiming later, if they could receive a lump sum in lieu of a higher annuity payment. Using a moment-matching approach, we calibrate a lifecycle model tracking observed claiming patterns under current rules and predict optimal claiming outcomes under the lump sum approach. Our model correctly predicts that early claimers...

Adequacy (2) : Pension entitlements of recent retirees

By Edward Whitehouse & Asta Zviniene This note discusses how expected benefit levels can be assessed. The note points out the measurement of current benefit levels that are observable: they do not depend on any assumptions about the future. However, they do depend on past contribution patterns, macroeconomic developments and parameters and rules of the pension system rules that, in many cases, no longer apply today. This briefing discusses the measurement of empirical average pension levels, minimum pensions and the...

Adequacy (1) Pension entitlements, replacement rates and pension wealth

By Edward Whitehouse This note briefly sets out a methodology for calculating prospective pension entitlements promised in the future to today’s workers. This method can (and has been) applied to a wide range of countries with very different pension systems. The entitlements shown here are prospective. It looks at theoretical values and so illustrates the way the current parameters and rules of pension systems will work for different example individuals. This can be used to assess the adequacy of future...

Economic integration across Latin America: evidence from labor markets, 1990-2013

By Daniel Lederman & Raymond Robertson Combining macroeconomic and microeconomic data and three indicators of international market integration, this paper assesses the degree to which Latin American labor markets are integrated. The results suggest that relative to East Asia, Latin American labor markets are somewhat more integrated, but considerable differences across countries persist. In addition, the evidence indicates that the degree of labor market integration across Latin American borders is significantly less than that of labor markets within Mexico and...