Risks, returns and realism: Mapping the future of pension investment

Former Australian pensions minister Nick Sherry and World Pensions Forum director M Nicolas J Firzli explain their new model for visualising the future of asset allocation as interest in private markets and productive finance increases.

We are living in the Age of Geo-Economics – defined by the second Trump presidency, the accelerating Sino-American technological rivalry, and the weaponisation of trade, finance and central banking – shaping the Fifth Industrial Revolution – bringing us artificial intelligence, advanced robotics, rare earth minerals, and small modular nuclear reactors.

These forces are fast transforming financial markets across asset classes and geographies. Pension fund CIOs and the investment managers who work for them are forced to reassess radically the way they invest. The ‘asset allocation of the future’ will need to incorporate new global geo-economic and country risk metrics that can help achieve deeper diversification, shield portfolios from sudden external shocks, and obtain higher risk-adjusted returns.

The new approach we present will also help incorporate, co-opt, and, in some instances, ‘pre-empt politely’ some of the pressing demands arising from civil society, national and local governments, who are eager to ‘steer’ more long-term capital towards economic development endeavours and environmental resilience – without always taking pension returns into proper consideration. Pension scheme trustees must remain the ultimate arbiters at all times.

Our Modern Asset Allocation Mapping, or MAAM, will be presented in more detail later this year during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings from 13 to 18 April 2026.

The simplified version presented in this editorial allows pension CIOs and trustees to consider their asset allocation options into four broadly defined categories or quadrants:
  • listed, global blue chip companies and government bonds, including Nasdaq giants and their rivals in the Shanghai CSI A100 index, for example;
  • listed local and regional assets, such as FTSE 250 companies and municipal bonds;
  • large private markets assets, such as stakes in airports or subsea natural gas pipelines; and
  • local private assets, which often have a strong energy and environmental component.

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