May 2017

Interactions between Financial Incentives and Health in the Early Retirement Decision

By Pilar Garcia-Gomez & Eddy van Doorslaer (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Titus J. Galama (USC Center for Economic and Social Research) & Ángel López Nicolás (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) We present a theory of the relation between health and retirement that generates testable predictions regarding the interaction of health, wealth and financial incentives in retirement decisions. The theory predicts (i) that wealthier individuals (compared to poorer individuals) are more likely to retire for health reasons (affordability proposition), and (ii) that health problems...

Dangerous Flexibility – Retirement Reforms Reconsidered

By Axel H. Börsch-Supan, Tabea Bucher-Koenen, Vesile Kutlu-Koc & Nicolas Goll (Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences) Flexible retirement is supposed to increase labor supply of older workers without touching the third rail of pension politics, the highly unpopular increase of the retirement age. While this may have intuitive appeal, this paper shows that it might be wishful thinking. Economic theory tells us that flexible retirement policies can have a zero or positive effect on labor force...

The Importance of Social Security Benefits to the Income of the Aged Population

By Irena Dushi & Howard Iams (US Social Security Administration); Brad Trenkamp (Government of the United States of America) Social Security benefits comprise the most important source of income for people aged 65 and over. However, changes in the last decades in employer-provided pensions, Social Security program, and societal changes may have altered the composition of income sources among the elderly. Some researchers have argued that the Current Population Survey (CPS ASEC) doesn’t properly measure income from retirement accounts and...

The Impact of Social Pensions on Intergenerational Relationships: Comparative Evidence from China

By Xi Chen (Yale), Karen Eggleston (Stanford University) & Ang Sun Renmin University of China) China launched a new rural pension scheme (hereafter NRPS) for rural residents in 2009, now covering almost all counties with over 400 million people enrolled. This implementation of the largest social pension program in the world offers a unique setting for studying the economics of intergenerational relationships during development, given the rapidity of China's population aging, traditions of filial piety and co-residence, decreasing number of children,...

Population Aging, Social Security and Fiscal Limits

By Burkhard Heer (University of Augsburg), Vito Polito (University of Bath) & Michael R. Wickens (University of Cardiff) We study the sustainability of pension systems using a life-cycle model with distortionary taxation that sets an upper limit to the real value of tax revenues. This limit implies an endogenous threshold dependency ratio, i.e. a point in the cross-section distribution of the population beyond which tax revenues can no longer sustain the planned level of transfers to retirees. We quantify the...

April 2017

How Can China Provide Income Security for its Rapidly Aging Population?

By Barry James, Estelle Kane & Che Friedman The authors discuss key choices policy makers face about China's pension system in the face of a rapidly aging population. They describe the problems the current pay-as-you-go system faces in the near and long term and simulate policy options for solving those problems. They find that simple design changes are necessary but not sufficient conditions for making the pension system sustainable. Partial funding is necessary to avoid large increases in future contribution...

We are Not All the Same: Key Law, Policy and Practice Strategies for Improving the Lives of Older Women in the Lower Mainland

By Canadian Centre for Elder Law (British Columbia Law Institute) In 2011 the Canadian Centre for Elder law (CCEL) started the Older Women’s Dialogue Project (OWDP) to identify and take action on barriers to the well-being of older women. While gender has a significant impact on life experience, research and policy analysis often renders older women invisible: feminist inquiry tends to focus on girls and women of child-bearing age and gender-neutral aging policy concentrates on the experiences of men. The...

Closing Routes to Retirement: How Do People Respond?

By Johannes Geyer & Clara Welteke (German Institute for Economic Research) We present quasi-experimental evidence on the employment effects of an unprecedented large increase in the early retirement age (ERA). Raising the ERA has the potential to extend contribution periods and to reduce the number of pension beneficiaries at the same time, if employment exits are successfully delayed. However, workers may not be able to work longer or may choose other social support programs as exit routes from employment. We...

Approximate Solutions to Retirement Spending Problems and the Optimality of Ruin

By Faisal Habib, Huang Huaxiong & Moshe A. Milevsky (York University) Milevsky and Huang (2011) investigated the optimal retirement spending policy for a utility-maximizing retiree facing a stochastic lifetime but assuming deterministic investment returns. They solved the problem using techniques from the calculus of variations and derived analytic expressions for the optimal spending rate and wealth depletion time under the Gompertz law of mortality. Of course, in the real world financial returns are stochastic as well as lifetimes, raising the...

March 2017

Towards an Equitable and Sustainable Points System: A Proposal for Pension Reform in Belgium

By Erik Schokkaert (Catholic University of Leuven), Pierre Devolder (Catholic University of Louvain), Jean Hindriks (University of London) & Frank Vandenbroucke (University of Amsterdam) We describe the points system that has been proposed by the Belgian Commission for Pension Reform 2020-2040. Intragenerational equity can be realised in a flexible and transparent way through the allocation of points within a cohort. The intergenerational distribution is determined by fixing the value of a point for the newly retired and a sustainability parameter...