Across the world, the population is getting older and it’s happening quickly. By 2050, the number of people ages 60 and older is expected to double.

This could be the most significant social transformation of our century. And it could have broad impacts globally—from world economics to national security.

Today’s WatchBlog post looks at our new report on global aging and its impact.

What is global aging and how could it impact the U.S.?
Global aging is happening at an unprecedented pace. There are already more adults on Earth over age 50 than children under 5. And it’s estimated that more than 2 billion people will be over 60 years old by 2050.

Two factors play a key role in this population shift:

Increasing life expectancy rates. Better health care and higher living standards, among other things, are helping people live longer across the globe.
Decreasing fertility rates. In most countries, younger generations are postponing childbirth and families are having fewer children.

What are the consequences of global aging? That’s not yet clear. The future largely depends on how countries across the world react. But understanding the potential impacts and how other countries may react to this trend is important for informing U.S. strategic priorities and goals. For example:

Shrinking labor pools here and abroad could affect economic competition and worldwide migration patterns.
Other nations may spend less on defense budgets while increasing health care spending for older adults. And militaries will have fewer young people eligible for military service. The world security landscape could shift as a result.

Global health priorities may need to focus on health-related risks and vulnerabilities faced by aging populations, such as dementia or cancer. Humanitarian efforts may need to adjust, too.

What’s being done in anticipation of this trend?
Abroad, some countries are attempting to address the effects of this demographic change. This includes implementing policies that encourage more births and help prepare for a growing population of older adults in their own countries.

U.S. programming to target aging populations abroad is rather limited. But there are some things being done that could help domestically and across the world. For example, there are a few federal programs that indirectly address the aging population by researching and collecting data on global aging and birth trends. The federal government is also sharing information with partner nations via international forums focusing on healthy aging, and provides health and humanitarian aid during conflicts and crises across the world.

For example, the Department of Health and Human Services is researching age-related medical conditions like dementia, cancer, and heart disease. And the State Department has supported economic resilience in rural Ukraine by helping farmers sustain the workforce pipeline in communities with aging populations. The State Department also manages humanitarian and disaster response aid that reaches older civilians in conflict and disaster zones. The U.S. Agency for International Development also previously had guidance that focused on risks and experiences of older women.

But none of these current efforts extend to foreign assistance programs that specifically address global aging issues.

Agency officials told us they don’t operate foreign assistance programs that specifically address the needs of older populations. And shifting legislative and administration priorities ended prior programs. For instance, the Department of Defense doesn’t have a strategy to address population aging in foreign nations as it relates to national security. Nor does it fund research on how foreign countries’ demographics could affect U.S. defense or alliance commitments now and in the future. One official stated that because this is a “slow-moving problem,” it is difficult to plan for the long-term effects of this issue.

Yet policymakers have identified global aging as a potential strategic challenge for the U.S. in the very near future.

Understanding the changes associated with global aging and their potential effects could help inform strategic priorities and goals. Afterall, as populations of U.S. allies and adversaries age, the U.S. will most certainly be impacted by this trend.

Read more @gao.gov