July 2019

09Jul

Threats Remain to Brazil’s Pension Bill Despite Investor Cheer

While investors cheered the progress of Brazil’s key pension reform bill last week, there’s no certainty that its passage through the rest of the legislative process will prove smooth. A day after the lower house special committee approved the text, President Jair Bolsonaro said there are some errors in the bill that need correcting. Members of his party, the PSL, are grumbling about the lack of special treatment for police. Meanwhile time is fast running out for a vote...

July 9, 2019
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05Jul

Pension reform prospects lift Brazil’s real, stocks

Brazil's currency and stocks rose on Thursday after a congressional committee in charge of analyzing the government's pension reform bill approved its main text. The draft bill, which analysts say is critical to improving Brazil's fiscal health and economy, could now be put to a lower house plenary vote before recess on July 18. Brazil's real hit a more than three-month high, while the Bovespa stock index surged 1.7% to...

July 5, 2019
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June 2019

27Jun

Brazilian real falls on economy worries, dollar lifts other Latam forex

The Brazilian real dipped on Tuesday on worries about the country's economy and pension reform plans, while other Latin American currencies rose against a weaker dollar. The Brazilian real edged lower for a second day, while the Mexican peso hovered near two-week lows even as the greenback touch new lows against a basket of major currencies. FRX/ Minutes from the Brazilian central bank's June policy meeting showed the economy is stagnating and uncertainty surrounding economic and fiscal reforms is...

June 27, 2019
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20Jun

Brazil’s Central Bank Keeps Key Rate at Its Record Low

Brazil held its benchmark interest rate at a record low and signaled it can cut borrowing costs to help a frail economy once a key austerity measure advances further in Congress. The bank’s board, led by its President Roberto Campos Neto, on Wednesdaykept the Selic unchanged at 6.50% in a decision expected by all but one of the 39 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Officials have held borrowing costs steady for over a year. In the statement accompanying the...

June 20, 2019
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19Jun

Brazil lawmakers open pension debate as Bolsonaro pushes private savings accounts

Brazil's congressional committee on pension reform began debating a revised bill on Tuesday, as President Jair Bolsonaro urged lawmakers to rethink their move to drop his plan to introduce a retirement system based on private savings accounts. The debate, which could extend into next week, comes ahead of a committee vote on the bill by June 26, according to lower house Speaker Rodrigo Maia, before it is considered for plenary approval. Committee Chairman Marcelo Ramos said he hopes for...

June 19, 2019
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18Jun

Brazil: The battle over pensions

The government’s difficulties are emerging clearly, with the weakness of its parliamentary group, stuck between the unpopularity of the reform and the clientelist pressures of the parties of the centre, unable to show their support for Guedes’ proposal. So, the visit of the minister ended in noisy confusion and an exchange of insults. The embarrassment of the minister representing the banking sector in the Commission led to a fall in capital markets. The next day was marked by the...

June 18, 2019
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May 2019

23May

Brazil pension chief says 250-270 lawmakers spoken in favor of pension reform

Parliamentary support in Brazil for the government’s pension reform bill is rising, with between 250 and 270 lower house deputies having spoken in favor of it, Labor and Pensions Secretary Rogerio Marinho said on Wednesday. Marinho’s remarks, made at a conference on pension reform, suggest the government may be getting closer to the 308 lower house votes it needs for the bill to then proceed to the Senate for final approval. Earlier this week, Marcelo Ramos, chairman of the...

May 23, 2019
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22May

Brazil Investors Bet on Pension Reform Approval. Once Again.

Brazilian assets tumbled over the past week as President Jair Bolsonaro’s administration faced nationwide protests, setbacks in the approval of key decrees and new strains in its relationship with Congress. Yet the prospects for pension reform are finally looking up. Political consultancy Eurasia raised the odds of approval of the government’s flagship economic proposal to 80%, up from 70%, citing lawmakers’ waning resistance to a measure deemed vital to Brazil’s finances. Bank of America Merrill Lynch upgraded the nation’s...

May 22, 2019
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10May

Brazil pension overhaul could turn foreign investment flow into deluge

Long-term foreign investment of well over $100 billion a year is ready to pour into Brazil if the government passes business-friendly reforms, according to some economists, providing fuel for an economy that failed to take off following a brutal 2015-16 recession. Brazil ranks second only to China among emerging markets in terms of drawing foreign direct investment, or FDI, in recent years. However, economists say much more capital is waiting on the sidelines and how much of that makes...

May 10, 2019
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08May

‘Savings will be half original estimate’: PMs slash Brazil pension reform expectations

Fund managers remain positive on the prospects of Brazil’s pension reform despite recent government talks having led them to slash in half the savings they expect the reform to generate. In February, President Jair Bolsonaro introduced to the country's lower legislative chamber a wide-ranging pension reform bill that was expected to result in savings of 1.07 trillion Brazilian reais ($270.7 billion) over 10 years. The bill cleared its first hurdle on April 23 when the lower house committee -...

May 8, 2019
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