January 2024

China too big to ignore, but policy will dictate growth, investors say

China's growth outlook remains murky but global investors can't afford to ignore the world's second-largest economy, although factors such as domestic policies, geopolitical developments and consumer sentiment will decide its growth trajectory, investment managers said. They also argue that upcoming restrictions by the U.S. and its partners on the flow of certain technologies to China has bifurcated the world scientific community and will hurt the global economy, even as some investors outside of the West, such as the Middle East,...

December 2023

US. Despite Concern from Lawmakers, US Pensions and Endowments Pour into China

American public pension funds and university endowments continue to invest billions in China, according to a report from Future Union, an advocacy organization. The “Rubicon Report” criticizes institutional investors and funds for financing what the organization calls adversarial states. According to data collected by Future Union, public pension funds in 43 U.S. states currently hold investments in China and Hong Kong, according to private and public databases as of June 30. Of the 74 largest pension funds, 29 have made...

Private credit attracts billions from U.S. pension funds

U.S. state and local retirement funds are pumping billions into private credit, joining the stampede into a booming sector of finance in the pursuit of higher returns. These systems are collectively allocating at least $100 billion of their roughly $5 trillion in assets into private debt, according to Equable, a bipartisan pension researcher founded by public finance leaders. While that's only a sliver of their holdings at present, funds' private credit positions have been steadily growing and are poised to...

Innovative Combo Product Design Embedding Variable Annuity and Long-Term Care Insurance Contracts

By Yang Shen, Michael Sherris, Yawei Wang & Jonathan Ziveyi This paper presents a novel combo insurance product design consisting of a variable annuity contract embedded with guaranteed minimum income benefits and long-term care insurance. This combo product provides enhanced benefits when the policyholder is functionally disabled. The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulation technique is utilised for numerically valuing the combo product whose underlying fund is proportionally invested in multiple asset classes. Product features including the elimination period and the maximum...

Scale Economies, Bargaining Power, and Investment Performance: Evidence from Pension Plans

By Tjeerd de Vries, S. Yanki Kalfa, Allan Timmermann & Russ Wermers We explore the relation between the size of a defined benefit pension plan and its choice of active vs. passive management, internal vs. external management, and public vs. private markets. We find positive scale economies in pension plan investments; large plans have stronger bargaining power over their external managers in negotiating fees as well as having access to higher (pre-fee)-performing funds, relative to small plans. Using matching estimators,...

UK. New report finds greening pensions reduces carbon footprint more than stopping flying

Scottish Widows’ latest Green Pensions Report has found that while most Brits are well aware of how to reduce their carbon footprint through changing their behaviours, two thirds (67%) don’t know how to switch to a ‘green pension’. If this information gap were to be addressed by the government, industry and employers, UK consumers could collectively save up to 386 million tonnes of carbon emissions annually through their pensions[1] – the equivalent of 11 return flights from London to New...

Developed Nations’ Public Pension Plans Dropped By Average of 15% in 2022

How bad was 2022’s market slide that hurt pension public pension plans in developed nations? Bad: They showed losses of about 15% on average, according to figures from an annual study by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. The arrival of higher interest rates and inflation, as the world struggled out of the COVID-19 pandemic, led to significant losses in asset values in OECD countries, the report showed. Losses ranged from 21% in the U.K. and 18% in the Netherlands to 9% in...

U.S. pension funds heavily invested in China despite crackdown

U.S. proposals to clamp down on investments in China may be being undermined by continued funding from some of America's biggest institutional investors, new analysis shows. The majority of U.S. public pensions, as well certain universities and non-profit organizations, have committed funds to China and Hong Kong, including in sensitive technologies — some as recently as this year, according to a report by Future Union, a non-partisan trade organization. The 74 largest contributors have allocated more than $70 billion to companies...

Global Public Pensions 2023

By Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum The Global Public Pensions 2023 report explores how public pension and sovereign funds are building optimal investment strategies to address the uncertain economic environment and factor sustainability into their portfolios. The report draws on surveys, discussions, and written contributions from 22 global public funds across the world with combined assets under management of $4.3tn. These include the likes of Singapore’s GIC, Canada’s CDPQ, Australia’s Future Fund and India’s National Infrastructure Investment Fund. It...

Money Illusion in Retirement Savings with a Minimum Guarantee

By Catherine Donnelly, Gaurav Khemka & William Lim We investigate the impact of money illusion on the investment strategy and retirement outcomes of pre-retirees. Money illusion refers to the tendency of individuals to overlook the effects of inflation and focus on nominal rather than real terms. We solve and compare the optimal investment strategies for a pre-retiree who exhibits money illusion and aims to maximize the expected power utility of wealth at retirement, subject to a minimum guarantee constraint. While...