Pension Systems, Demographic Aging, and the Home Bias Puzzle: Global Evidence
By Brian Peters This paper tests whether pension system growth mediates the relationship between demographic aging and cross-border portfolio diversification. Using a panel of up to 188 countries from 1990 to 2024, we find that demographic aging robustly predicts pension system growth (Z₁ = +69.2***, p = 0.0002, N = 1,225, 42 countries), establishing the first stage of the mediation chain. However, pension fund growth does not uniformly translate into changes in external portfolio allocation: the second stage (pension spending...
