May 2025
08May

No one wins in a U.S.-China trade war, Milken speakers say

The standoff between the U.S. and China over trade and tariffs presents enormous risks for the global economy, with implications for combatting climate change, nuclear weapons security, and for the development of international standards for artificial intelligence, speakers said May 6 at the Milken Institute Global Conference 2025 in Beverly Hills, Calif. “We are tearing apart an international trade regime that served our country and the world very well," Robert Rubin, who served as secretary of the Treasury in the...

May 8, 2025
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April 2025
11Apr

Tariffs, Tokens, and Turmoil: The Market Fallout from Trump’s Policy Uncertainty

By David Krause This paper investigates the financial consequences of economic policy shifts following President Trump's second inauguration in January 2025. Using empirical data from April 2024 through April 7, 2025, this study assesses asset performance across U.S. equities, cryptocurrencies, gold, and bonds. The administration's aggressive trade protectionism, ambiguous digital asset directives, and deregulatory approach to artificial intelligence have triggered heightened market volatility, diminished investor confidence, and a rotation toward defensive assets. Indexed returns reveal that traditional safe havens like...

April 11, 2025
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09Apr

Trade war threatens pensions, risks recession

A local financial adviser pegs the risk of global recession at between 30 and 40 per cent, after Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping global tariffs sent the US stock market in a tail spin. The prediction from Bryan Dooley, the chief investment officer for LOM Asset Management Ltd, may be conservative. Goldman Sachs raised the odds of a US recession to 45 per cent, their second hike in a week. Others are at 50 per cent. JP Morgan chief economist Bruce Kasman,...

April 9, 2025
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March 2025
07Mar

The Macroeconomy After Tariffs

By Davide Furceri, Swarnali A Hannan, Jonathan D Ostry & Andrew K Rose What does the macroeconomy look like in the aftermath of tariff changes? This study estimates impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries from 1963 to 2014. Tariff increases are associated with persistent, economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity, as well as higher unemployment and inequality, real exchange rate appreciation, and insignificant changes to the...

March 7, 2025
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December 2024
06Dec

Argentina. Pensioners the big losers in Milei’s world

 Alicia Ceresoli yearns for the smell of new leather shoes and her mouth waters when she imagines sinking her teeth into a succulent steak, two indulgences the 80-year-old Argentine can no longer afford. Pensioners have taken the most pain in a year of budget-slashing by maverick "anarcho-capitalist" President Javier Milei, whose austerity measures have tipped an additional five million people into poverty since he took power last year. In September he vetoed a law that increased pensions by eight percent --...

December 6, 2024
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05Dec

Pensions reform could unlock the UK economy

Make no mistake. Rachel Reeves’ maiden Budget was an assault on working people. The chancellor may not have directly hit people’s pay packets with an increase in income tax, national insurance or VAT, but families will see their living standards rise more slowly as a result. Businesses – the lifeblood of our economy – will invest less and charge consumers more. I’ll leave it there – for now. Enough has already been written about the Budget’s flaws and even though...

December 5, 2024
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October 2024
30Oct

UK Budget and US election hot topics at pension seminar

The impact of the upcoming UK Budget and US election on pensions and investment markets was a key focal point at Quantum Advisory’s latest event. Finance, HR and pension professionals came together on 22 October to hear exclusive industry insights and market updates at the firm’s pension and investment breakfast seminar at the Celtic Manor Twenty Ten Clubhouse. Dan Redwood, a senior investment consultant and actuary at Quantum Advisory, opened the event with an overview of macroeconomics, gilts and equity markets...

October 30, 2024
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17Oct

US Is Sleepwalking Into an Economic Storm

By Daron Acemoglu   Daron Acemoglu, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, received the Nobel in economic science this year. Inflation seems under control. The job market remains healthy. Wages, including at the bottom end of the scale, are rising. But this is just a lull. There is a storm approaching, and Americans are not prepared. Barreling toward us are three epochal changes poised to reshape the U.S. economy in coming years: an aging population, the rise of artificial intelligence and...

October 17, 2024
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August 2024
28Aug

The geopolitical ripple effect of Asia’s ageing population

By 2050, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), one in four people in Asia will be aged over 60. This is a threefold increase compared to 2010. China, the economic powerhouse of the region, is projected to see a decrease of 220 million working-age individuals between 2011 and 2050. Japan’s population is expected to decline by 16 per cent by 2050, with the number of senior citizens living alone predicted to jump by 47 per cent. This demographic shift has far-reaching implications that demand the immediate...

August 28, 2024
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July 2024
31Jul

The Future of Growth Report 2024

By World Economic Forum The Future of Growth Report 2024 introduces a multidimensional framework to assess the quality of economic growth across 107 countries globally. It characterizes nations’ economic growth across four dimensions: Innovativeness; Inclusiveness; Sustainability; and Resilience. The data and analysis presented may be used by a wide range of stakeholders to identify areas to improve, trade-offs to resolve or synergies to exploit. While every country has a unique growth pathway shaped by a wide range of circumstantial...

July 31, 2024
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