Brazil’s Demographic Transition and the Future of Social Protection: Rethinking Pension Policy for an Ageing Society
By Valter Manuel Gomes Neto
Brazil’s rapid demographic transition presents growing challenges for the sustainability, coverage, and adequacy of its pension system. Although the 2019 pension reform improved fiscal sustainability, population ageing and persistent labour informality continue to place pressure on pension financing and old-age income security. Drawing on existing research and policy evidence, this policy brief examines the trade-offs between fiscal consolidation, contributory coverage, and non-contributory income protection. It argues that future pension reform should move beyond a predominantly fiscal perspective towards an integrated social protection strategy. Three policy priorities are proposed: expanding pension coverage among informal and self-employed workers through simplified contribution mechanisms and targeted incentives; promoting active ageing and longer labour market participation through age-inclusive employment policies; and strengthening minimum income protection for vulnerable older adults. The brief concludes that financial sustainability and social protection should be pursued as complementary objectives rather than competing policy priorities.
Source SSRN
