April 2018

Why Do Defaults Affect Behavior? Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan

By Joshua Blumenstock, Michael Callen, Tarek Ghani We report on an experiment examining why default options impact behavior. By randomly assigning employees to different varieties of a salary-linked savings account, we find that default enrollment increases participation by 40 percentage points—an effect equivalent to providing a 50% matching incentive. We then use a series of experimental interventions to differentiate between explanations for the default effect, which we conclude is driven largely by present-biased preferences and the cognitive cost of thinking...

Italy: Toward a Growth-Friendly Fiscal Reform

By Michal Andrle (International Monetary Fund (IMF)), Shafik Hebous (International Monetary Fund), Alvar Kangur (International Monetary Fund (IMF)), Mehdi Raissi (International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Asia and Pacific Department) Published in late 2017, the Italian medium-term fiscal plan aims to achieve structural balanceby 2020, although concrete, high-quality measures to meet the target are yet to be specified.This paper seeks to contribute to the discussion by: (i) assessing spending patterns to identifyareas for savings (ii) evaluating the pension system (iii) analyzing the scope for...

On Welfare Effects of Increasing Retirement Age

By Krzysztof Makarski (National Bank of Poland; Warsaw School of Economics (SGH)) & Joanna Tyrowicz (National Bank of Poland; University of Warsaw) We develop an OLG model with realistic assumptions about longevity to analyze the welfare effects of raising the retirement age. We look at a scenario where an economy has a pay-as-you-go defined benefit scheme and compare it to a scenario with defined contribution schemes (funded or notional). We show that, initially, in both types of pension system schemes...

Faulty Transmissions: Howe Demographics Affect Monetary Policy in Canada

By Steve Ambler (University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM) - Centre de recherche sur l'emploi et les fluctuations économiques (CREFÉ)) & Jeremy Kronick (C.D. Howe Institute) Over the past decade, inflation in many countries has been tepid, despite rock-bottom interest rates and different forms of unconventional stimulative monetary policy, including quantitative easing. For its part, Canada has averaged 1.5 percent inflation over this period, below the 2 percent target. This Commentary asks what role demographics, in particular an aging population,...

Best Interests in the Long Term: Fiduciary Duties and ESG Integration

By Susan N. Gary (University of Oregon - School of Law) Two persistent misconceptions continue to affect the way fiduciaries think about sustainable investing: (1) fiduciary duties block a fiduciary investor from considering environmental and social factors and (2) if a fiduciary investor engages in sustainable or responsible investing, the portfolio will suffer financially. An examination of socially responsible investing, ESG integration (an investment process that involves consideration of material environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors together with traditional financial...

The Relation Between the Migration, Population Aging, Labor Force Productivity and Economic Growth: An Analysis for Bulgaria

By Hamit Can (Technical University of Sofia) & Venelin Terziev (Vasil Levski National Military University; University of Ruse) In this study, the relationship between population, elderly population and economic growth is analyzed theoretically, taking into account the demographic change of the Bulgarian population and the more aging phenomenon. Thus, the change in the age structure of the Bulgarian population was investigated and the factors affecting the growth of the relationship between economic growth were investigated. Developed countries are trying to...

Petitioning and the Making of the Administrative State

By Maggie McKinley (University of Pennsylvania Law School) The administrative state is suffering from a crisis of legitimacy. Many have questioned the legality of the myriad commissions, boards, and agencies through which much of our modern governance occurs. Scholars such as Jerry Mashaw, Theda Skocpol, and Michele Dauber, among others, have provided compelling institutional histories, illustrating that administrative lawmaking has roots in the early American republic. Others have attempted to assuage concerns through interpretive theory, arguing that the Administrative Procedure...

The Return to Work and Women’s Employment Decisions

By Nicole Maestas (Harvard Medical School - Department of Health Care Policy) It is well documented that individuals in couples tend to retire around the same time. But because women tend to marry older men, this means many married women retire at younger ages than their husbands. This fact is somewhat at odds with lifecycle theory that suggests women might otherwise retire at later ages than men because they have longer life expectancies, and often have had shorter careers on...

How a New Bond Can Greatly Improve Retirement Security

By Adam Kobor (New York University (NYU)) & Arun Muralidhar (AlphaEngine Global Investment Solutions; George Washington University) There is a growing retirement crisis and most of the focus has been on the fact that individuals are not saving enough for retirement, may not have access to pension schemes, or are financially illiterate. However, the bigger issue might be that the assets/financial products available to investors, including those that offer legal protection to plan sponsors, may not be appropriate for the typical...

March 2018

When Mommies Become Nannies: The Effects of Parental Retirement Across Generations

By Yi Chen (Jinan University - Institute for Economic and Social Research) & Xiaoyun Zhang (University of New South Wales (UNSW) - ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR)) This paper analyzes the effect of parental retirement on the next generation through intergenerational time transfer. We investigate a series of consequences, including women's time allocation, fertility decisions, labor force participation, and subjective well-being. The study uses data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and employs regression discontinuity...