April 2021

Declining Natural Interest Rate in the US: The Pension System Matters

By Jacopo Bonchi, Giacomo Caracciolo The natural interest rate is the level of the real interest rate compatible with potential output and stable prices. We develop a life-cycle model and calibrate it to the US economy to quantify the role of the public pension scheme for the past and future evolution of the natural interest rate. Between 1970 and 2015, the pension reforms have overall mitigated the secular decline in the natural interest rate, raising it by around one percentage...

Combining Flexible Asset Allocation, Sustainable Withdrawals, and Deferred Annuities to provide an Adaptive Lifelong Investing Solution

By Anran Chen, Steven Haberman, Steve Thomas In this paper, we integrate investment decisions in the post-retirement decumulation period with that of the deferred annuity purchase to provide a lifetime decumulation solution. Based on Monte Carlo simulation and historical experience, we use the Perfect Withdrawal Rate (PWR) as a tool to make recommendations on withdrawal rates and asset allocations for different levels of risk preferences. We have a few potentially important findings. First, we illustrate how cheap it is to...

Senado chileno aprueba proyecto de ley sobre retiro de pensión

El Senado chileno informó a través de nota de prensa, que fue aprobado con 31 votos a favor y 11 en contra, el proyecto de ley donde se autoriza a los afiliados del sistema de pensiones a retirar parte de sus fondos acumulados. “Se establece como monto máximo de retiro el equivalente a 150 unidades de fomento y un mínimo de 35 unidades de fomento, con el objeto de mitigar los efectos sociales derivados del estado de excepción constitucional de...

México. Los bajos montos de las pensiones no alcanzan a los mexicanos. ¿Hay soluciones?

Roberto Patiño es un trabajador del Estado que está por cumplir la edad de retiro, sin embargo, está en la disyuntiva si jubilarse o no, pues considera el monto de la pensión que recibirá es bajo. “Cotizo para el ISSSTE. El último salario que tengo son 15,000 pesos mensuales, es el nivel número 19 de los trabajadores de base”, explicó Patiño en entrevista, y quien es de los trabajadores del llamado 10° transitorio, es decir, que tendrá pensión vitalicia. Este año...

Perú. Entidades financieras alistan alternativas de ahorro para compensar el retiro de CTS

Consultamos con protagonistas del sistema financiero para que den su primera impresión sobre la ley y el impacto que generará en sus carteras. Mario Guerrero Corzo, subgerente de Estudios Económicos de Scotiabank, comentó que el monto de CTS en el sistema financiero alcanza a S/.21,7 mil millones (2,9% PBI). Pero aún no está claro que porcentaje se retiraría. “El primer retiro de CTS alcanzó a S/ 4.500 millones (0,6%) del PBI, no obstante el saldo de CTS a febrero del...

Chile: al menos nueve detenidos tras noche de protestas por tercer retiro de pensiones de las AFP

Al menos nueve personas fueron detenidas en la noche de este miércoles durante las protestas contra el requerimiento que el Gobierno de Chile ha presentado ante el Tribunal Constitucional para frenar el proyecto de ley que permite retirar fondos provisionales de las Administradoras de fondos de Pensiones (AFP). Todas las detenciones tuvieron lugar en la comuna de Peñaloén, ubicada en la capital de Chile, Santiago, aunque se han registrado barricadas y caceroladas en otras partes del país. Según Carabineros, cinco...

Chile Pension Furor Grows Over Third Round of Withdrawals

Chile’s senate on Thursday approved legislation allowing early pension fund withdrawals, just days after President Sebastian Pinera challenged the bill’s legality in the Constitutional Court. Read also Chile begins debate on third pension withdrawal amid second wave of the pandemic Lawmakers including several Pinera allies backed the bill permitting workers to tap as much as 10% of their retirement savings for the third time since the pandemic started, with 31 votes in favor and 11 against. The proposal will return to...

Comfortable retirement still on track for most Americans despite pandemic – survey

The coronavirus pandemic did little to shake the retirement confidence of most American workers and retirees, according to the 2021 Retirement Confidence Survey released Thursday by the Employee Benefit Research Institute and Greenwald Research. Despite the turmoil COVID-19 stirred up in the employment and financial markets, 80% of retirees said they were confident in their ability to live comfortably throughout retirement, while 72% of those still in the workforce expressed confidence in their ability to retire in comfort, the survey...

A $120 Billion Danish Pension Manager Loses Faith in Bonds

In one of the world’s best-run pension markets, the biggest commercial manager says it’s time to dump bonds. “The switch out of fixed income into broader equities, whether it’s listed or unlisted, is what we recommend and what we are positioned for,” Kasper Lorenzen, chief investment officer at Copenhagen-based PFA, said in an interview. Back when most asset managers were being taught the trade, “we learned that government bonds are the safe assets, the risk-free asset,” he said. “Well, let’s see...

Debate cycle by Observatory of European Systems of Complementary Social Pension Plans

The Observatory of European Systems of Complementary Social Pension Plans of the University of Barcelona, which was created a year ago, will launch its first dissemination activity for the audience on April 29. The activity is a debate cycle on complemenary social pension plans, that is, the set of actions to fulfil the public pensions from a private entrepreneurial and individual initiative. The first session of the cycle will talk about the latest recommendations on complementary social pension plans in...