By Josh Bivens It is often underrecognized how much population aging is currently reducing the growth rate of the U.S. labor force and will continue to pull it down in coming decades. The share of the population that is over the age of 65 (when labor force participation tends to take a steep fall on average) is rising rapidly. This share was 12.4% in 2007, 17.9% in 2024, and will hit 21.2% by 2035 (CBO 2025b). A recent EPI report...
Having worked their entire lives, paying into the system and forgoing vacations, some Swiss are shocked to discover they can't afford life in Switzerland after retirement. More and more retirees are choosing to leave their homeland – not in search of adventure, but out of sheer necessity. "After working hard for so many years, pensioners are being pushed to the margins of society. When it comes to its own people, I no longer see Switzerland as a social country." State pensions...
By Andrea Berlanda, Elisabetta Lodigiani & Lorenzo Rocco In this paper, we use the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), complemented with register data on the share of the foreign population in the European regions, to examine the effects of migration on the level of informal care provided by children to their senior parents. Our main results show that migration decreases informal care among daughters with a university degree, while it increases the provision of informal care...
By David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, Maggie R. Jones & Bradley Setzler This chapter analyzes the distinct adjustment paths of U.S. labor markets (places) and U.S. workers (people) to increased Chinese import competition during the 2000s. Using comprehensive register data for 2000–2019, we document that employment levels more than fully rebound in trade-exposed places after 2010, while employment-to-population ratios remain depressed and manufacturing employment further atrophies. The adjustment of places to trade shocks is generational: affected areas recover primarily by adding workers to...
In a remarkable achievement, Brazilian workers in Portugal contributed over 1 billion euros to the country’s social security system in 2023. This significant increase of 57% compared to 2022 highlights the vital role immigrants play in sustaining Portugal’s economy. But what does this mean for the future of labor in Portugal? Why Are Brazilian Workers Essential to Portugal’s Social Security System? Brazilian immigrants are becoming indispensable to Portugal’s economy. With local workers aging and fewer young people entering the labor market, how can...
By Salla Kalin, Antoine Levy & Mathilde Munoz This paper investigates whether and why pensioners move across borders in response to tax rate differentials. In 2013, retirees relocating to Portugal became eligible to a full tax exemption of foreign-source pensions. Contrary to the broadly held belief that seniors "age in place", we find substantial international mobility responses to the reform, concentrated among wealthy and educated pensioners in higher-tax origin countries. The implied migration elasticity of the stock of foreign pensioners...
Emigration has been top of mind for many residents after Hong Kong’s government in March passed Article 23, a domestic security law. For those moving to the UK, not being able to access their pension money has palpable financial impacts. “With Article 23, there will be more people trying to leave Hong Kong, more people trying to get early withdrawals to build their new lives, and more denials,” said Ms Megan Khoo, research and policy adviser at British-based activist group...
Immigrants support the economy of aging societies in many ways. They pay into social pension programs, which finance the lives of retirees. Many of them work in the care industry and directly serve older people, which reduces nursing home needs on a community level. Immigrants themselves also benefit economically from moving to a new country. At every education level, they typically enter the labor market with lower wages than native-born citizens do, but eventually catch up over time. However, my recent study has revealed that things look...
By Danae Hernandez-Cortes & Sophie Mathes This article documents how environmental distress affects individual-level labor market outcomes in Latin America’s largest economy. We collect data on a broad range of environmental distress events namely heat waves, floods, fires, and droughts, and combine these with uniquely rich administrative information covering the universe of formal employment in Brazil from 2003 to 2017. We find heterogeneous labor effects in response to environmental distress. We find that heat waves disrupt employment, increasing retirement rates...
By Prof Stein Emil Vollset, DrPH, Emily Goren, PhD, Chun-Wei Yuan, PhD, Jackie Cao, MS, Amanda E Smith, MPA, Thomas Hsiao, BS, Catherine Bisignano, MPH, Gulrez S Azhar, PhD, Emma Castro, MS, Julian Chalek, BS, Andrew J Dolgert, PhD, Tahvi Frank, MPH, Kai Fukutaki, BA, Prof Simon I Hay, FMedSci, Prof Rafael Lozano, MD, Prof Ali H Mokdad, PhD, Vishnu Nandakumar, MS, Maxwell Pierce, BS, Martin Pletcher, BS, Toshana Robalik, BSc, Krista M Steuben, MS, Han Yong Wunrow, BSc,...
