July 2020

21Jul

US. What The Wild Stock Market Means For Public Pensions

As governments deal with paying for Covid-19 expenses amid falling tax revenue and shrinking budgets, there’s another big bill waiting for them: pension debt. And many could lean on taxpayers to help. Pension plans haven’t released their annual earnings yet, but a recent report from Moody’s Investors Service notes that “investment returns...have almost certainly fallen well short of targets.” The ratings agency estimates that when pension plans tally up their total performance between July 1, 2019 and June...

July 21, 2020
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17Jul

Does the actuarial adjustment for pension delay affect retirement and claiming decisions?

By Devon Gorry, Kyung Min Lee, Sita Slavov We investigate the impact of more generous terms for delaying state pensions on claiming and labor supply in the United Kingdom using a 2005 policy change. First, we find that the more generous delay terms reduced the fraction of males receiving pensions at the earliest eligibility age and shortly after. While there are also post-policy changes in women’s claiming behavior, further investigation reveals that these changes do not coincide with the...

July 17, 2020
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17Jul

Exposure to the COVID-19 Stock Market Crash and its Effect on Household Expectations

By Tobin Hanspal, Annika Weber, Johannes Wohlfart We survey a representative sample of US households to study how exposure to the COVID-19 stock market crash affects expectations and planned behavior. Wealth shocks are associated with upward adjustments of expectations about retirement age, desired working hours, and household debt, but have only small effects on expected spending. We provide correlational and experimental evidence that beliefs about the duration of the stock market recovery shape households’ expectations about their own wealth and...

July 17, 2020
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17Jul

US. Public Pensions Face a COVID-19 Conundrum

Faced with depleting assets, and with state and local governments under fiscal pressure from the COVID-19 recession, public pension plan sponsors have some tough choices ahead of them in order to remain sustainable during economic uncertainty. However, there are widely differing views among economic scholars as to what the most prudent strategy is for state and local governments dealing with low returns on pension investments, aging workforces, and pressure to build portfolios to cover promised future benefits—as well as...

July 17, 2020
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16Jul

US. DOL Proposes New Rules for Selecting Retirement Plan Investments

If you are a member of the committee for your employer’s pension, 401(k), profit-sharing, or 403(b) plan, you should check out a set of proposed rules for selecting investments. If you have an outside investment advisor, as you probably should, they should be bringing these proposals to your attention. This process of the DOL’s presents a good opportunity to look at your plan’s procedures to assure that you and your advisor are both meeting your fiduciary responsibilities. The Notice...

July 16, 2020
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15Jul

US. Post-pandemic Retirement: Can We Build More Resilient Systems?

Reforming retirement systems is a more urgent imperative globally as the coronavirus pandemic claims jobs, lowers economic growth and investment returns, and threatens to choke funding for already underfunded pension plans. The pandemic is also hastening the imminent insolvency of the Social Security Trust Fund in the U.S., a recent report by the Penn Wharton Budget Model has found. In two recession scenarios the report laid out, the trust fund would run out of money in 2032 or 2034...

July 15, 2020
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14Jul

US. Milliman analysis: Corporate pension funded ratio at 83.7% in June as discount rate hits historic low

Milliman, Inc., a premier global consulting and actuarial firm, today released the results of its latest Pension Funding Index (PFI), which analyzes the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans. Despite solid investment returns, June's PFI funded status worsened by $6 billion due to an 11 basis point drop in the monthly discount rate, from 2.76% in May to 2.65% for June. This month's discount rate marks the lowest observed in the 20-year history of the Milliman PFI. The PFI...

July 14, 2020
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13Jul

US. Public pension funds in an era of low rates and COVID-19

What is the most prudent strategy for state and local governments confronting low returns on pension investments, aging workforces, and pressure to build portfolios large enough to cover promised future benefits at the same time that these governments face other pressing demands? Presentations at the 2020 Municipal Finance Conference provide contrasting answers to this question. Louise Sheiner and Finn Schuele of the Hutchins Center at Brookings with co-authors Byron Lutz of the Federal Reserve Board and...

July 13, 2020
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09Jul

Trump’s Plan to Block Pensions From ESG Won’t Help Fossil Fuels

The U.S. Department of Labor is concerned that America’s pension fund managers don’t know what they’re doing. Read also US. Public Pensions and the COVID-19 Fiscal Dilemma That’s the rationale, at least, for the department’s newly proposed rule restricting the use of environmental, social, and governance considerations in investment decision-making. The language reaffirms the standard interpretation of fiduciary guidelines that only financial risks and returns can be considered in the management of U.S. employer-provided pension funds; “non-pecuniary goals,” for...

July 9, 2020
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09Jul

US, Canadian Pension Funds Rebound with Markets in Q2

The funded status of the largest US corporate pension plans and Canadian defined benefit (DB) pension plans rebounded during the second quarter as resurgent equity and bond markets offset liability increases from falling interest rates. The funded status for the pension plans for 366 Fortune 1000 companies that sponsor US defined benefit pension plans increased to 82% as of June 30, from 79% at the end of the first quarter, but below the 87% at the end of 2019,...

July 9, 2020
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