May 2020

DB Funded Status Estimates Are Mixed in April

Firms that track defined benefit (DB) plan funded status reported a range of estimates for April—from a decrease of 0.1% to an increase of 4%, depending on the group of plans being tracked. The highest increase reported was 4% (to an 80% aggregate funding level), estimated by Mercer for pension plans sponsored by S&P 1500 companies. The firm says this was the result of an increase in equity markets, which offset a decrease in discount rates. As of April...

US. How COVID-19 Has Changed Retirement Planning

The global COVID-19 pandemic has touched virtually every aspect of our lives, not least of which is how we save for retirement. Forbes Advisor commissioned a YouGov survey of 9,675 U.S. adults to get a deeper read on how coronavirus has impacted retirement planning. The answers were surprising. With a near total lockdown on business activity in the U.S., we wanted to understand how people have begun to reorient their financial priorities. As Warren Buffett explained in the Berkshire...

US. Public Pensions Could Suffer for Years from Pandemic Losses

US public pension plan sponsors and administrators are likely entering a period of fiscal stress, and rising pension obligations caused by the sudden pandemic-induced recession are expected to be felt for years by US state and local governments, according to a report from S&P Global Ratings. S&P said US public pension funds in aggregate lost approximately $850 billion during the first quarter of the year, and that they would need to rebound sharply during the second quarter to maintain...

Covid-19, Longevity Risk & the Economics of Annuitization

Although the dire medical situation and mounting economic toll of covid-19 is of immediate and first-order importance, the virus has also prompted many to ponder their own mortality. Whether it’s doctors in emergency rooms who quickly redrafted codicils or nursing home attendants pondering their own DNR instructions, the randomness or mortality is being imprinted on our susceptible behavioral minds. Interestingly, preliminary and anecdotal evidence suggests a spike in the acquisition of life insurance policies over the last few months,...

Pareto-improving transition to fully funded pensions under myopia

By Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya, joydeep Bhattachary, Marias H. Gestsson Under dynamic efficiency, a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension scheme is often described as an “original sin”: It helps the current generation of retirees but hurts future generations because they are forced to save via a return-dominated scheme. Abandoning it is deemed welfare-improving but typically not for all generations. But what if agents are present-biased (hence, undersave for retirement) and the “paternalistically motivated forced savings” component of a PAYG scheme...

J.P. COVID impact on markets: research update

By Michael Cembales The first table itemizes monetary and fiscal stimulus unleashed by the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks in recent weeks, measured as Central Bank liquidity provisions, new fiscal stimulus programs and rate cuts. For context, new fiscal stimulus and total fiscal deficits in the US are roughly double the levels seen in 2008-2009, and the US fiscal deficit we project for 2020 of 15%-18% is only matched by deficits seen at the height of WWII in 1942-1943. ...

US. J.P. Morgan report estimates pandemic’s impact on unfunded retirement benefits

Banking giant J.P. Morgan issued a report estimating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic downturn on states’ unfunded pension and retiree healthcare liabilities, noting Connecticut would have to pay nearly 40 percent of its revenue for the next thirty years to pay off nearly $70 billion in unfunded liabilities. Connecticut had the fourth highest cost to pay off its liabilities, with Hawaii, New Jersey and Illinois faring worse. According to the report, the economic downturn added another...

US. Public pension funds are a net gain for state and local revenue – study

Public pension funds were net revenue generators for state and local governments in 2018, surpassing taxpayer contributions by $179 billion, according to a biennial study released Tuesday by the National Conference on Public Employee Retirement Systems. That represents a 30.6% increase from the original study covering 2015-2016. In 2018, pension funds generated about $341.4 billion in state and local revenues through investments and retiree spending, while the taxpayer contribution to those pension plans was $162 billion. For...

US. Public pension funds are a net gain for state and local revenue – study

Public pension funds were net revenue generators for state and local governments in 2018, surpassing taxpayer contributions by $179 billion, according to a biennial study released Tuesday by the National Conference on Public Employee Retirement Systems. That represents a 30.6% increase from the original study covering 2015-2016. In 2018, pension funds generated about $341.4 billion in state and local revenues through investments and retiree spending, while the taxpayer contribution to those pension plans was $162 billion. For 40 states,...

White House Makes Appointments That Could Impact Pension Fund Decision to Invest in China

The White House on Monday named three nominees to sit on a board that oversees federal employee pension funds, a move that could see the reversal of a decision to allow one of the funds to invest in Chinese companies under scrutiny from Washington. If confirmed by the Senate, the three individuals would sit on the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board (FRTIB) which administers the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), a retirement savings fund similar to a 401(k) for federal...