November 2020

The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival

By Charles Goodhart, Manoj Pradhan This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing...

The Future of Work in Latin America and the Caribbean: How Can Technology Facilitate Job Recovery after COVID-19?

By Azuara Herrera, Oliver; Fazio, Maria Victoria; Hand, Anne; Keller, Lukas; Rodríguez Tapia, Catalina; Silva Porto, María Teresa COVID-19 has been a catalyst for three technologies that had had slow adoption rates until just a few months ago: teleworking, on-demand digital platforms, and online training. This is evidenced by the increase in downloads of mobile applications related to these activities. In this interactive note, the sixth in the series The Future of Work in Latin America and the Caribbean,...

Social Insurance, Demographics, and Rural-Urban Migration in China

By Neha Bairoliya, Ray Miller We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the impact of social insurance policy and demographic changes on rural-urban migration in China. Quantitative analyses indicate that different social insurance programs not only have differential effects on net migration flows but also on the age and income distribution of migrants. Enrolling migrants in urban pensions discourages rural-urban migration at young ages and reverse migration in old-age. In contrast, urban health insurance incentivizes rural-urban migration...

Pension Superpowers and Financial Markets in the Sino-American Century

By M. Nicolas J. Firzli In this primer published in the Feb. 2020 issue of Private Debt Investor (PDI), Nicolas J. Firzli, World Pensions Council, looks at how institutional asset owners will come to the fore in the new geo-economic context defined by renewed Sino-American "coopetition" across ASEAN countries, Australia, Eastern Europe and the MENA area, Brexit and the resurgence of one-nation conservatism in Britain, the slow, relative decline of the European Union and the secular rise of "Pension...

UK. Can superfunds be the silver bullet for DB woes?

Consolidation as a means of achieving better outcomes for pension schemes is a growing trend. This was highlighted in the UK’s Department for Work and Pensions’ (DWP) 2018 White Paper on protecting defined benefit (DB) pension schemes. However, the term ‘consolidation’ is in itself extensive in relation to what it exactly means to pension schemes. According to several investment consultants, consolidation should seek to achieve one or a combination of several goals: create efficiencies of scale; improve governance through...

Ireland. Minister Humphreys announces the Establishment of the Pensions Commission

The Minister for Social Protection, Heather Humphreys, T.D., has today secured Government approval to establish the Commission on Pensions. The Commission, which will be chaired by Ms Josephine Feehily, will examine sustainability and eligibility issues in respect of State Pension arrangements and will outline options for Government to address issues such as qualifying age, contribution rates, total contributions and eligibility requirements. Read also UK. Can superfunds be the silver bullet for DB woes? The membership of the Commission reflects the...

The technologies that could transform ageing

At the start of the summer, Paula Tinkler was ready to take her career in a new direction. This may not be unusual – but the speed with which she was able to make the transition was. Within a week, she was shadowing a carer in Workington, England. Within a month, she was working as a carer herself. Not only was her training rapid – it also took place completely in her own home. “I began the recruitment process...

Latvia. Constitutional Court to decide on minimal old age pension amount

On Wednesday, 4 November, a court hearing was commenced during which it is planned to decide on the current old age pension amount’s compliance with the Constitution of the Republic of Latvia. In accordance with Europe’s Reviewed Social Charter, the minimal old age pension amount in Latvia should be at least EUR 341 a month, whereas currently it is EUR 80, as reported by the Ombudsman’s Bureau. Ombudsman Juris Jansons turned to the Constitutional Court over the non-compliance of...

Pace of outsourced Asia-Pacific assets to slow, report says

Assets outsourced to external money managers by institutional investors in the Asia-Pacific region are set to grow at an annualized rate of 9% over the five years through 2024, down from 12% over the five years through 2019, according to a report by fintech firm Broadridge Financial Solutions. The slowdown is partly in response to the fallout from COVID-19, including moves by some retirement systems in the region to allow members to draw down their retirement savings to get...

Milliman expands Pension Buyout Index to include competitive pricing rate, which drops to 100.2% in September

Milliman, Inc., a premier global consulting and actuarial firm, today announced the latest results of its Milliman Pension Buyout Index (MPBI). As the Pension Risk Transfer (PRT) market continues to grow, it has become increasingly important to monitor the annuity market for plan sponsors that are considering transferring retiree pension obligations to an insurer. Read also Retirement Saving Is Hard Even For Those Who Can Afford It While we continue to analyze annuity purchase rates from all insurers, starting this...