May 2020

US. Public Pensions Could Suffer for Years from Pandemic Losses

US public pension plan sponsors and administrators are likely entering a period of fiscal stress, and rising pension obligations caused by the sudden pandemic-induced recession are expected to be felt for years by US state and local governments, according to a report from S&P Global Ratings. S&P said US public pension funds in aggregate lost approximately $850 billion during the first quarter of the year, and that they would need to rebound sharply during the second quarter to maintain...

Protecting financial consumers during the COVID-19 crisis

Financial regulators around the world are struggling to deal with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. As consumers’ financial circumstances deteriorate as a result of the crisis, it is crucial to ensure that financial institutions treat consumers fairly and bad behavior does not add to consumer suffering. International media and organizations have highlighted concerns, such as consumer over-indebtedness increasing quickly due to the crisis and fraudsters exploiting fears over the pandemic to target financial consumers. Regulators are recognizing...

Algeria approves 2-7% increase in retirement pensions

Algeria’s government has approved increases in retirement pensions ranging from 2% to 7%, the labour ministry said on Saturday, despite financial problems facing the oil exporting North African country. The OPEC member’s public finances have come under pressure after a sharp fall in global crude oil prices caused energy earnings, the main source of government revenue, to drop significantly. President Abdelmadjid Tennoune has already announced a 50% cut in public spending and delays to planned projects in several sectors...

Australia. COVID-19 has killed 12% superannuation

For years MacroBusiness has argued that Australia’s superannuation guarantee (SG) should not be raised from the current level of 9.5% to 12%. Our arguments against lifting the SG centre around four key issues. First, superannuation concessions are grossly inequitable and favour high income earners. This inequity is illustrated clearly by the below Australian Treasury chart, which shows that the top 1% of earners will receive roughly 14-times the taxpayer contributions to their personal superannuation accounts as the bottom 10%...

Covid-19, Longevity Risk & the Economics of Annuitization

Although the dire medical situation and mounting economic toll of covid-19 is of immediate and first-order importance, the virus has also prompted many to ponder their own mortality. Whether it’s doctors in emergency rooms who quickly redrafted codicils or nursing home attendants pondering their own DNR instructions, the randomness or mortality is being imprinted on our susceptible behavioral minds. Interestingly, preliminary and anecdotal evidence suggests a spike in the acquisition of life insurance policies over the last few months,...

Have Cash Transfers Succeeded in Reaching the Poor in Latin America and the Caribbean?

By Marcos Robles, Marcela G. Rubio, Stampini Marco We present novel estimates of the quality of targeting of conditional cash transfer (CCT) and non-contributory pension (NCP) programs in Latin-America and the Caribbean. Our contribution is novel in that we use both national and international poverty lines, provide differentiated estimates for urban and rural areas, and compare CCT and NCP programs. We show that leakage to the non-poor coexists with pervasive under-coverage of all poor, including the extreme poor. On average,...

The DB landscape Defined benefit pensions 2019

By The Pensions Regulator Welcome to the fourth edition of the DB landscape publication, TPR’s annual reporton the defned beneft (DB) pension schemes that we regulate. We have taken this information from the pension schemes register on 31 March 2019 and included DB an hybrid occupational schemes with more than one member. Our publication differs from the Pension Protection Fund (PPF)’s Purple Book as their data includes only those DB scheme, eligible for the lifeboat fund. We present the...

Pareto-improving transition to fully funded pensions under myopia

By Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya, joydeep Bhattachary, Marias H. Gestsson Under dynamic efficiency, a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension scheme is often described as an “original sin”: It helps the current generation of retirees but hurts future generations because they are forced to save via a return-dominated scheme. Abandoning it is deemed welfare-improving but typically not for all generations. But what if agents are present-biased (hence, undersave for retirement) and the “paternalistically motivated forced savings” component of a PAYG scheme...

Reference-Dependent Preferences, Time Inconsistency, and Unfunded Pensions

By Torben M. Andersen In the real world, public pay-as-you-go pension (PAYG) schemes are popular and co-exist with private, retirement-saving schemes. This is true even in dynamically efficient economies where such pensions offer a lower return. The classic Aaron-Samuelson result argues that, in theory, this is impossible. Later work has shown that it may be possible if agents, left on their own, undersave due to myopia or time-inconsistency. In that case, if the government is paternalistic, a welfare rationale...

J.P. COVID impact on markets: research update

By Michael Cembales The first table itemizes monetary and fiscal stimulus unleashed by the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks in recent weeks, measured as Central Bank liquidity provisions, new fiscal stimulus programs and rate cuts. For context, new fiscal stimulus and total fiscal deficits in the US are roughly double the levels seen in 2008-2009, and the US fiscal deficit we project for 2020 of 15%-18% is only matched by deficits seen at the height of WWII in 1942-1943. ...