Subjective survival beliefs and the life-cycle model

By Seung Yeon Jeong, Iqbal Owadally, Steven Haberman & Douglas Wright Evidence from panel surveys of households, collected over several years and in different countries, shows that people’s perception about their remaining lifetime deviates from actuarial data. This has consequences for consumption, savings and investment over an individual’s financial life cycle, and in particular for retirement planning and the purchase of annuities. We use data from the U.S. Survey of Consumer Finances to estimate subjective survival probabilities at different ages....