September 2018

Inequalities of Aging: Paradoxes of Independence in American Home Care (Anthropologies of American Medicine: Culture, Power, and Practice)

By Elana D. Buch The troubling dynamic of the American home care industry where increased independence for the elderly conflicts with the well being of caregivers Paid home care is one of the fastest growing occupations in the United States, and millions of Americans rely on these workers to help them remain at home as they grow older. However, the industry is rife with contradictions. The United States spends a fortune on medical care, yet devotes comparatively few resources on improving...

Medium-Run Implications of Changing Demographic Structures for the Macro-Economy

By Yunus Aksoy (Birkbeck, University of London),Henrique S. Basso (Birkbeck College, University of London) & Ron Smith (Birkbeck College) In the decade since the onset of the financial crisis, the disappointing recovery has sparked renewed concern about the medium-run outlook for advanced economies. Rather than returning to the pre-crisis trend, output has continued to diverge from it. It is difficult to know whether this is a cyclical phenomenon, a slow recovery towards steady state, or a secular change in the...

2018 Retirement preparedness survey: A Generational Challenge

By Prudential The U.S. retirement landscape has changed dramatically over the past few decades. Fewer workers today are eligible to receive a pension and instead must save for their own retirements, typically through workplace savings plans. Replacement rates for Social Security are declining due to the increase in the “full retirement age.”1 Income is becoming less predictable, thanks in part to new employment models. Health care costs are increasing, and so is longevity—which means workers today don’t just have more...

Still Attached? Are Social Safety Nets Working? Labor Force Participation in European Regions

By Benjamin Hilgenstock (Institute of International Finance) & Zsoka Koczan (International Monetary Fund (IMF)) The paper examines the evolution and drivers of labor force participation in European regions, focusing on the effects of trade and technology. As in the United States, rural regions within European countries saw more pronounced declines (or smaller increases) in participation than urban regions. Unlike in the United States, however, trade and technology, captured here using novel measures of initial exposures to routinization and offshoring, did...

What Age Do You Feel? – Subjective Age and Economic Behaviors

By Zihan Ye (Zhejiang University - College of Economics) & Thomas Post (Maastricht University - School of Business and Economics - Department of Finance; Netspa) Building on recent findings in psychology, we study the impact of subjective age (feeling younger or older than one’s chronological age) on economic behaviors. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study we find that subjective age predicts economic behaviors: Individuals with younger age identities have higher work engagement, and their savings profile, as a...

August 2018

Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: The Relationship to Youth Employment (National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report)

By por Jonathan Gruber ,‎ David A. Wise  Many countries have social security systems that are currently financially unsustainable. Economists and policy makers have long studied this problem and identified two key causes. First, as declining birth rates raise the share of older persons in the population, the ratio of retirees to benefits-paying employees increases. Second, as falling mortality rates increase lifespans, retirees receive benefits for longer than in the past. Further exacerbating the situation, the provisions of social security...

Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia

By Serkan Arslanalp (International Monetary Fund (IMF)), Jaewoo Lee (International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department) & Umang Rawat (International Monetary Fund (IMF)) Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-termmovement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of therelationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced andemerging market economies. It also finds that capital account openness limits the directsensitivity of a country's interest rates to its own demographics. The results suggest...

Graying of U.S. Bankruptcy: Fallout from Life in a Risk Society

By Deborah Thorne (University of Idaho), Pamela Foohey (Indiana University Maurer School of Law), Robert M. Lawless (University of Illinois College of Law) & Katherine M. Porter (University of California - Irvine School of Law) The social safety net for older Americans has been shrinking for the past couple decades. The risks associated with aging, reduced income, and increased healthcare costs, have been off-loaded onto older individuals. At the same time, older Americans are increasingly likely to file consumer bankruptcy,...

Population Aging, Social Security and Fiscal Limits

By Burkhard Heer (University of Augsburg; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)), Vito Polito (Cardiff Business School) & Michael Wickens (University of Cardiff; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)) We study the sustainability of pension systems using a life-cycle model with distortionary taxation that sets an upper limit to the real value of tax revenues. This limit implies an endogenous threshold dependency ratio, i.e. a point...

The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda

By Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies have advanced rapidly over the last several years. As the technology continues to improve, it may have a substantial impact on the economy with respect to productivity, growth, inequality, market power, innovation, and employment. In 2016, the White House put out several reports emphasizing this potential impact. Despite its importance, there is little economics research on the topic. The research that exists is derived from past technologies (such...