September 2018

Still Attached? Are Social Safety Nets Working? Labor Force Participation in European Regions

By Benjamin Hilgenstock (Institute of International Finance) & Zsoka Koczan (International Monetary Fund (IMF)) The paper examines the evolution and drivers of labor force participation in European regions, focusing on the effects of trade and technology. As in the United States, rural regions within European countries saw more pronounced declines (or smaller increases) in participation than urban regions. Unlike in the United States, however, trade and technology, captured here using novel measures of initial exposures to routinization and offshoring, did...

What Age Do You Feel? – Subjective Age and Economic Behaviors

By Zihan Ye (Zhejiang University - College of Economics) & Thomas Post (Maastricht University - School of Business and Economics - Department of Finance; Netspa) Building on recent findings in psychology, we study the impact of subjective age (feeling younger or older than one’s chronological age) on economic behaviors. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study we find that subjective age predicts economic behaviors: Individuals with younger age identities have higher work engagement, and their savings profile, as a...

August 2018

Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: The Relationship to Youth Employment (National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report)

By por Jonathan Gruber ,‎ David A. Wise  Many countries have social security systems that are currently financially unsustainable. Economists and policy makers have long studied this problem and identified two key causes. First, as declining birth rates raise the share of older persons in the population, the ratio of retirees to benefits-paying employees increases. Second, as falling mortality rates increase lifespans, retirees receive benefits for longer than in the past. Further exacerbating the situation, the provisions of social security...

Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia

By Serkan Arslanalp (International Monetary Fund (IMF)), Jaewoo Lee (International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department) & Umang Rawat (International Monetary Fund (IMF)) Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-termmovement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of therelationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced andemerging market economies. It also finds that capital account openness limits the directsensitivity of a country's interest rates to its own demographics. The results suggest...

Graying of U.S. Bankruptcy: Fallout from Life in a Risk Society

By Deborah Thorne (University of Idaho), Pamela Foohey (Indiana University Maurer School of Law), Robert M. Lawless (University of Illinois College of Law) & Katherine M. Porter (University of California - Irvine School of Law) The social safety net for older Americans has been shrinking for the past couple decades. The risks associated with aging, reduced income, and increased healthcare costs, have been off-loaded onto older individuals. At the same time, older Americans are increasingly likely to file consumer bankruptcy,...

Population Aging, Social Security and Fiscal Limits

By Burkhard Heer (University of Augsburg; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)), Vito Polito (Cardiff Business School) & Michael Wickens (University of Cardiff; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)) We study the sustainability of pension systems using a life-cycle model with distortionary taxation that sets an upper limit to the real value of tax revenues. This limit implies an endogenous threshold dependency ratio, i.e. a point...

The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda

By Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies have advanced rapidly over the last several years. As the technology continues to improve, it may have a substantial impact on the economy with respect to productivity, growth, inequality, market power, innovation, and employment. In 2016, the White House put out several reports emphasizing this potential impact. Despite its importance, there is little economics research on the topic. The research that exists is derived from past technologies (such...

The Relationship Between Financial Planner Use and Holding a Retirement Saving Goal: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

By Kyoung Tae Kim (University of Alabama), Tae-Young Pak (University of Alabama), Su Hyun Shin (University of Alabama) & Sherman D. Hanna (Ohio State University (OSU)) It has been well established in the literature that financial advice leads to informed decision making and improved financial outcomes. However, there is limited evidence regarding the link between financial planner use and attitudes towards retirement saving. As financial planners provide comprehensive advice for the long-term benefits of clients, their clients may become more...

Financial Fraud among Older Americans: Evidence and Implications

By Marguerite DeLiema, Martha Deevy, Annamaria Lusardi, Olivia S. Mitchell The consequences of poor financial capability at older ages are serious and include making mistakes with credit, spending retirement assets too quickly, and being defrauded by financial predators. Because older persons are at or past the peak of their wealth accumulation, they are often the targets of fraud. Our project analyzes a module we developed and fielded in the 2016 Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Using this dataset, we evaluate...

Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Working Longer

By Courtney Coile This is the introduction and summary to the eighth phase of an ongoing project on Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World. This project, which compares the experiences of a dozen developed countries, was launched in the mid 1990s following decades of decline in the labor force participation rate of older men. The first several phases of the project document that social security program provisions can create powerful incentives for retirement that are strongly correlated with...