June 2019

Social Security Coverage for State and Local Government Workers: A Reconsideration

By William G. Gale, David John, Sarah E. Holmes Since it was created in 1935, Social Security has grown from covering about half of the work force to covering nearly all workers. The largest remaining exempted group is a subset of state and local government workers (SLGWs). As of 2008, Social Security did not cover about 27 percent of the 23.8 million SLGWs (Congressional Research Service 2011). Non-coverage of SLGWs is concentrated in certain states scattered around the country...

The Great Pension Debate: Finding Common Ground

By Robert L Brown, Stephen Eadie In the never-ending debate about finding an optimal pension model, many proponents start the discussion at extreme ends of the pension model paradigm. At one extreme is a traditional, fully guaranteed defined-benefit (DB) pension plan. In this plan, all of the risks are born by the plan sponsor given that plans are fully funded. While such plans are growing rare today that is the starting point for many in this debate. At the...

Retire In-Home: A New Way to Use a Home to Guarantee Retirement Income

By Arun Muralidhar There is a growing retirement crisis and most of the focus has been on the fact that individuals are not saving enough for retirement, may not have access to pension schemes, and find it difficult to choose from a wide range of retirement products. One solution that has been considered is to improve access to Reverse Mortgages (RMs) so that individuals can convert their (possibly) single largest asset into a through-death income stream. However, current RMs are...

Switching Costs and Competition in Retirement Investment

By Fernando Luco How do different switching costs affect choices and competition in a private pension system? I answer this question in a setting in which variation in employment status allows me to identify two switching costs that jointly affect enrollees’ decisions: the cost of evaluating financial information and the cost of the bureaucratic process that enrollees must navigate when switching. I use this variation to estimate the different switching costs and study their impact on competition among pension...

How Will Retirement Saving Change By 2050? Prospects for the Millennial Generation

By William G. Gale, Hilary Gelfond, Jason J. Fichtner We consider prospects for retirement saving for members of the millennial generation, who will be between ages 54 and 69 in 2050. Adequacy of retirement saving preparation among current and near-retirees is marked by significant heterogeneity, a characteristic that will likely hold for Millennials as well. In preparing for retirement, Millennials will have several advantages relative to previous generations, such as more education, longer working lives, and more flexible work arrangements,...

May 2019

Ensuring Retirement Security with Simple GLIDeS

By Adam Kobor, Arun Muralidhar There is a growing retirement crisis and most of the focus has been on the fact that individuals are not saving enough for retirement, may not have access to pension schemes, or are financially illiterate. More critically, assets/financial products available to investors, may not be appropriate for the typical individual saving for retirement. The goal of retirement is to try to guarantee a target level of income ideally from retirement till death. Current glide...

Pension Scheme Designs: Can It Influence Timing of Retirement? The Case of the Public Service Pension Scheme in Uganda

By Kibs Boaz Muhanguzi Ambiguity in literature about how pensions influence retirement decision can be a challenge to policy formulation unless further inquiry is done. This ambiguity could be attributed to a number of factors including the study scope, different pension designs and differing study methodologies. Using Uganda’s public service pension scheme, this study delves into exploring whether the scheme’s design influences timing of retirement. Using a probit model, analysis of the effect of pension o timing of retirement...

Borrowing to Save? The Impact of Automatic Enrollment on Debt

By John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian, Bill Skimmyhorn Does automatic enrollment into retirement savings plans increase borrowing outside the plan? We study this question using a natural experiment created when the U.S. Army began automatically enrolling its newly hired civilian employees into the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) at a default contribution rate of 3% of income. We find that four years after hire, automatic enrollment causes no significant change in debt excluding auto loans...

Economic Growth and the Public Sector: A Comparison of Canada and Italy, 1870-2013

By Livio Di Matteo, T. P. Barbiero There is considerable evidence that the size of the public sector can influence an economy’s rate of economic growth. We investigate public sector spending of central governments and economic performance in two G7 countries over the long-term, Canada and Italy. Their economic performance has diverged in the last 25 years and it is worth investigating whether the size of government was a contributing factor. We find that in both the case of...

Will the Financial Fragility of Retirees Increase?

By Steven A. Sass Retirees have long been considered financially fragile. The notion that they are ill-equipped to absorb financial shocks is captured in the traditional trope that they live on fixed incomes. Going forward, retirees will get much less income from fixed Social Security and employer pensions, and much more from savings in 401(k) plans and individual retirement accounts (IRAs). These savings give retirees greater flexibility to respond to shocks. But tapping into their nest eggs comes at...