June 2018

Wage Determination in the Long Run, Real Wage Resistance and Unemployment: Multivariate Analysis of Cointegrating Relations in 10 OECD Economies

By Timo Tyrväinen (Bank of Finland) Over the past twenty years or so, unemployment has been increasing in most OECD economies.In the same period, there has been a considerable increase in the wedge between the real cost to the employer of hiring a worker and the net real wage received by the worker.The present study examines whether changes in the wedge (including various tax rates) may have generated long-lasting effects on real labour costs.Behaviour which generates this kind of outcome...

Population Aging and the Possibility of a Middle-Income Trap in Asia

By Joonkyung Ha (Hanyang University - Ansan Campus) & Sang-Hyop Lee (University of Hawaii - Department of Economics) We present three conditions for a demography-driven middle-income trap and show that many economies in East, South, and Southeast Asia satisfy all of them. The conditions are (1) support ratio—the ratio of workers to consumers—matters for economic growth, (2) economic development accompanies more investment in human capital and lower fertility due to the quantity–quality trade-off, and (3) current low level of fertility...

The Effects of Means-Tested, Noncontributory Pensions on Poverty and Well-Being: Evidence from the Chilean Pension Reforms

By Italo Garcia (RAND Corporation) & Andres Otero (Independent) Chile initiated in 1981 a privately managed, individual-account pension system that inspired similar reforms in many Latin American countries, and that has been considered as a possible model for Social Security in the United States. After 30 years in place, the Chilean pension system has been criticized for replicating existing inequalities in labor markets and increasing the risk of old-age poverty; for achieving lower levels of coverage; and for providing low...

Optimal Risk-Sharing in Pension Funds When Stock and Labor Markets are Co-Integrated

By Ilja Boelaars (University of Chicago) & Roel Mehlkopf (Tilburg University) A well established believe in the pension industry is that collective pension funds should take more stock market risk (compared to individual retirement accounts) since risk may be shared with future generations. We extend the OLG model of Gollier (2008) by adding labor income risk in the spirit of Benzoni, Collin-Dufresne, and Goldstein (2007) and show that this idea may be misguided. For the empirical range of parameter values...

Why Are People Working Longer In The Netherlands?

By Adriaan Kalwij, Arie Kapteyn, Klaas de Vos Labor force participation at older ages has been rising in the Netherlands since the mid-nineteen-nineties. Reforms of the social security and pension systems have often been put forward as main explanations for this rise. However, participation rates above the normal retirement age of 65 have almost tripled for men and quadrupled for women despite the fact that at those ages reforms are unlikely to have had much impact. This suggests other factors...

Maybe the Gig Economy Isn’t Reshaping Work After All

By Ben Casselman You can see the gig economy everywhere but in the statistics. For years, economists, pundits and policymakers have grappled with the rise of Uber, the growth of temporary work and the fissuring of the relationship between companies and their workers. Optimists cheered the flexibility offered by the freelance life. Pessimists fretted about the disappearance of traditional jobs, with the benefits and legal protections they provided. That debate has played out largely in the absence of solid data. But on...

Towards an Equitable and Sustainable Points System. A Proposal for Pension Reform in Belgium

By Erik Schokkaert (Catholic University of Leuven (KUL)), Pierre Devolder (Catholic University of Louvain), Jean Hindriks (University of London - School of Economics and Finance) & Frank Vandenbroucke (University of Amsterdam) We describe the points system as proposed by the Belgian Commission for Pension Reform 2020–2040. Intragenerational equity can be realised through the allocation of points within a cohort. The intergenerational distribution is determined by fixing the value of a point for the newly retired and a sustainability parameter for...

Flexible or Mandatory Retirement? Welfare Implications of Retirement Policies for a Population With Heterogeneous Health Conditions

By Zhenhua Feng (Tsinghua University - Institute of Economics), Jaimie W. Lien (The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - Department of Decision Sciences & Managerial Economics) & Jie Zheng (Tsinghua University - School of Economics & Management) A flexible retirement policy has often been proposed as a solution to address the social dilemma of individuals in the population having different desired retirement ages. We analyze such a policy in an overlapping generations general equilibrium framework, where individuals differ in...

Age Discrimination in European Employment Law: Problems and Potential Reforms

By Dáire McCormack-George (School of Law at Trinity College, Dublin) Irish employment equality law is driven by European Union policy. However, the law on age discrimination in employment is currently in a deeply worrying state. In this essay, I will make two arguments in relation to the case law of the Court of Justice of the European Union on the lawfulness of mandatory retirement ages. First, I will argue that the case law of the Court is, in the main,...

May 2018

Insight into the Earned Income Tax Credit and Tax-Advantaged Retirement Savings

By David Rogofsky (Government of the United States of America - Office of Retirement Policy), Richard Chard (Government of the United States of America - Office of Research, Evaluation and Statistics), Joanne Yoong (Center for Economic and Social Research (CESR)) Saving for retirement has traditionally been compared to a three-legged stool supported by Social Security benefits, workplace pensions, and personal savings. As the prevalence of defined benefit pensions has diminished in recent decades, the importance of personal savings has grown....