November 2022

US. As Biden turns 80, people ask ‘What’s too old?

Joe Biden turns 80 on Sunday, making him the first octogenarian president in U.S. history. He is set to celebrate his birthday with a brunch hosted by his wife, Jill, a celebration that got an extra lift this weekend with his granddaughter's wedding at the White House on Saturday. With Biden already the oldest person to serve as president, the 2024 race for the White House is shaping up to be uncharted territory for the United States. The nearly 250-year old...

U.S. Pension Funding Ratios Continue to Increase

Better equity performance and higher interest rates in October contribute to pensions nearing full funding. Aon’s Pension Risk Tracker in October reached its highest funded status level since its’ inception in 2011, as the aggregate pension funded status of S&P 500 companies increased to 97.2%. from 93.8% in September. Aon reports that pension asset returned 0.8% in October. The Aon report was one of several, released since the end of October, that showed improvements. The month-end 10-yr Treasury rate increased 27 basis...

Preparing for Retirement Reforms

By Karen E. Smith, Eugene Steurele, Damir Cosic Each of the three pillars of the US retirement system—Social Security, employer pensions, and private savings—suffers from serious problems that could threaten the financial security of future retirees. Social Security is at risk of becoming insolvent. If policymakers fail to act, Social Security benefits will be cut by about 25 percent starting in 2035, and even with reform, some combination of a slowdown in benefit growth for retirees and higher taxes on...

Regulators researching all-to-all trading in U.S. Treasury market

In an effort to boost resiliency in the U.S. Treasury market, federal regulators are studying the pros and cons of widespread all-to-all trading, which would allow any market participant to trade directly with any other market participant, according to a report released Thursday. The report from the Inter-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance, or IWAG, which is composed of staff from the Department of the Treasury, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Reserve Bank...

US. Here’s why you should be worried about state and local pensions

Public pensions may be facing a massive fiscal shortfall, according to two economics professors Right now, across America, about 26 million people are relying on state and local pension plans to take care of them in their retirement years. That figure includes 15 million retired teachers, police officers, firefighters and other public sector workers, and another 11 million who are still working. On the other side of the leger all the taxpayers— 330 million of us, give or take —who are...

US. Rising Interest Rates Change the Math on Pensions for Some Would-Be Retirees

Higher interest rates are good for our cash and checking accounts but are not always good for pension holders. Rising interest rates have an inverse relationship to a pension’s lump-sum value. As interest rates increase, the value of a pension holder’s lump sum could decrease. Because of this, I am seeing more pension holders who want to take a lump sum do so now vs. waiting. I am also seeing annuity rates improve with rising interest rates, pushing annuity income...

US. Climate investors eye midterms with caution

After an active year of federal policy in favor of climate technology, investors are preparing to go it alone should the midterm results change the tone in Washington. Why it matters: Private investors may have to step up and fund potentially risky, capital-intensive projects like battery-manufacturing plants or grid-resilience projects should federal funds and incentives be pulled back or stopped altogether. Context: Several Republican candidates in state and federal races have indicated that ESG initiatives, particularly from large asset managers running...

Japan’s GPIF reports 0.88% decline for latest quarter

Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund, Tokyo, said its portfolio ended the latest quarter with ¥192.1 trillion ($1.33 trillion) in assets, down 0.88%, or $11.6 billion, from the prior quarter. In a statement posted on GPIF's website Friday, Masataka Miyazono, the pension fund's president, said rate hikes in the U.S. and Europe to contain inflationary pressures stoked concerns of recession, depressing stock prices at home and abroad. But the dollar's continued gains vs. the yen during the quarter ended Sept. 30, to...

State and Local Pensions: What Now?

By Alicia H. Munnell In the wake of the financial crisis and Great Recession, the health of state and local pension plans has emerged as a front burner policy issue. Elected officials, academic experts, and the media alike have pointed to funding shortfalls with alarm, expressing concern that pension promises are unsustainable or will squeeze out other pressing government priorities. A few local governments have even filed for bankruptcy, with pensions cited as a major cause. Alicia H. Munnell draws on...

Trends in State and Local Pension Funds

By Oliver Giesecke & Joshua D. Rauh Unfunded public pension obligations represent the largest liability for state and local governments in the United States. As of fiscal year 2021, the total reported unfunded liabilities of these plans is $1.076 trillion. In contrast, the market value of the unfunded liability is approximately $6.501 trillion. As a result, the reported funding ratio of 82.5% falls to 43.8% under a market-based valuation. The market values reflect the fact that accrued pension promises are...