The Safe Withdrawal Rate: Evidence from a Broad Sample of Developed Markets
By Aizhan Anarkulova, Scott Cederburg, Michael S. O'Doherty & Richard W. Sias We use a comprehensive new dataset of asset-class returns in 38 developed countries to examine a popular class of retirement spending rules that prescribe annual withdrawals as a constant percentage of the retirement account balance. A 65-year-old couple willing to bear a 5% chance of financial ruin can withdraw just 2.26% per year, a rate materially lower than conventional advice (e.g., the 4% rule). Our estimates of failure...
