November 2020

Defining Climate-Aligned Investment: An Analysis of Sustainable Finance Taxonomy Development

By Aneil Tripathy, Lionel Mok, Katie House The green bond market has grown rapidly since its inception in 2007. Climate-aligned standards provide investors with the confidence that their investments deliver a measurable climate benefit. Serving as a benchmark, these standards demonstrate alignment with the Paris Agreement, against which green bond issuers can then report compliance. This paper draws on the authors’ experiences as practitioners and researchers helping to develop the Climate Bonds Standard and the European Union’s Sustainable Finance...

What Matters in the Annuitization Decision?

By Mohamad Hassan Abou Daya, Carole Bernard We conduct a simultaneous test for several rational and behavioral factors which have been hypothesized to affect the uptake of life annuities on a sample of American individuals. In addition, we investigate whether analysts’ stock market expectations affect the decision to annuitize retirement wealth. We provide evidence that the effect of such expectations depends on the level of trust in them. We attribute our findings to the availability heuristic and default probabilities....

Pension Schemes in the European Union: Challenges and Implications from Macroeconomic and Financial Stability Perspectives

By Antonio Sánchez Serrano,Tuomas Peltonen Pension schemes have a significant influence on the saving and consumption decisions of households. Similarly, contributions to pension arrangements are substantial expenditures for national governments and also for corporations, depending on the prevailing pension system. Beyond this, pension schemes play an important role in the economy, channelling savings into investments through capital markets. However, demographic factors and the macroeconomic environment (low interest rates, low growth and low productivity) are raising concerns about the sustainability...

Social Insurance, Demographics, and Rural-Urban Migration in China

By Neha Bairoliya, Ray Miller We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the impact of social insurance policy and demographic changes on rural-urban migration in China. Quantitative analyses indicate that different social insurance programs not only have differential effects on net migration flows but also on the age and income distribution of migrants. Enrolling migrants in urban pensions discourages rural-urban migration at young ages and reverse migration in old-age. In contrast, urban health insurance incentivizes rural-urban migration...

Pension Superpowers and Financial Markets in the Sino-American Century

By M. Nicolas J. Firzli In this primer published in the Feb. 2020 issue of Private Debt Investor (PDI), Nicolas J. Firzli, World Pensions Council, looks at how institutional asset owners will come to the fore in the new geo-economic context defined by renewed Sino-American "coopetition" across ASEAN countries, Australia, Eastern Europe and the MENA area, Brexit and the resurgence of one-nation conservatism in Britain, the slow, relative decline of the European Union and the secular rise of "Pension...

October 2020

Reconsidering Risk Aversion

By Daniel J. Benjamin, Mark Alan Fontana, Miles S. Kimball Risk aversion is typically inferred from real or hypothetical choices over risky lotteries, but such “untutored” choices may reflect mistakes rather than preferences. We develop a procedure to disentangle preferences from mistakes: after eliciting untutored choices, we confront participants with their choices that are inconsistent with expected-utility axioms (broken down enough to be self-evident) and allow them to reconsider their choices. We demonstrate this procedure via a survey about...

Life-Care Tontines

By Peter Hieber, Nathalie Lucas This paper builds on the advantage of pooling mortality and morbidity risks, and their inherent natural hedge. We focus on classical mutual risk pooling schemes, i.e. tontines, and introduce a ``life-care tontine", which in addition to retirement income targets the needs of long-term care coverage for an ageing population. This scheme reduces adverse selection costs and is actuarially fair at each time. Pooling heterogeneous risks (i.e. different age groups) is shown to reduce overall...

The Changing Nature of Work and Public Pension Coverage: Evidence from the US and Europe

By Axel H. Börsch-Supan, Courtney Coile, Jonathan Cribb, Carl Emmerson and Yuri Pettinicchi We examine non-standard work and its impact on pension coverage via a case study of the US, the UK, and Germany. We find that the share of workers engaged in non-standard work has changed only modestly over time in these three countries, despite the popular perception that a more significant transformation in the nature of work may be underway. We discuss how non-standard work may affect...

Changes to Household Retirement Savings Since 1989

By Andrew G. Biggs This report uses two new data sources to provide insights on the evolution of retirement savings over the past three decades and how future retirees may fare. First, the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances and Distributional Financial Accounts (DFA) provide estimates of both household savings in retirement accounts and any benefits households accrued under a traditionally defined benefit pension. The DFA data show that, from 1989 through 2016, household retirement savings increased for every...

Reconsidering Risk Aversion

By Daniel J. Benjamin, Mark Alan Fontana, Miles S. Kimball Risk aversion is typically inferred from real or hypothetical choices over risky lotteries, but such “untutored” choices may reflect mistakes rather than preferences. We develop a procedure to disentangle preferences from mistakes: after eliciting untutored choices, we confront participants with their choices that are inconsistent with expected-utility axioms (broken down enough to be self-evident) and allow them to reconsider their choices. We demonstrate this procedure via a survey about...