March 2026

Japan’s births hit record low for 10th year as demographic crisis outpaces government forecasts

Japan’s demographic crisis accelerated to a historic velocity last year as the number of births fell for the 10th consecutive year, reaching a record low that threatens the structural integrity of the nation’s social security framework. Data released Thursday by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare revealed that births in 2025 declined 2.1% from the previous year to 705,809. This figure, which includes foreign nationals residing in Japan, represents the lowest level since record-keeping began in 1899 and marks...

Japan public pensions let domestic bond holdings slide as yields rise

Organizations managing public pension funds in Japan are keeping a smaller share of their assets in Japanese bonds, steering clear of buying in a trend that could add to the upward pressure on yields. The Federation of National Public Service Personnel Mutual Aid Associations had 19% of its holdings in domestic bonds at the end of 2025, well below its standard allocation of 25%. The organization has around 12 trillion yen ($76.8 billion) in assets under management. Similar, albeit smaller, declines...

February 2026

Japan public pensions let domestic bond holdings slide as yields rise

Organizations managing public pension funds in Japan are keeping a smaller share of their assets in Japanese bonds, steering clear of buying in a trend that could add to the upward pressure on yields. The Federation of National Public Service Personnel Mutual Aid Associations had 19% of its holdings in domestic bonds at the end of 2025, well below its standard allocation of 25%. The organization has around 12 trillion yen ($76.8 billion) in assets under management. Similar, albeit smaller, declines...

Impact of iImmigration on the Japanese Economy: A Multi-Country Simulation Model

By Manabu Shimasawa To quantify the impacts of immigration and fiscal reconstruction on the Japanese economy, we present a dynamic computable general equilibrium OLG model with an overlapping generations structure. We use a total of 16 countries and regions, both including those that are industrialized, such as Japan, the US, and the EU, and developing countries, such as China, Brazil, the Philippines, and Peru. Our simulation results show that a permanent immigration flows of 150,000 will improve the Japanese economy and...

Why Is Japan’s Population Decreasing?

Japan’s population has been declining steadily since 2005 primarily because of a decrease in births, which have consistently been lower than the number of deaths per year. The birth rate in Japan dropped from about 19 per 1,000 people in 1970 to just 6 in 2023. Until the mid-1970s, the total fertility rate remained above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, the threshold needed for population stability, but that rate declined to a record low of 1.15 in 2024. Another factor has been a gradual shift...

December 2025

Japan’s Aging Workforce: Determinants and Outlook

By Sagiri Kitao & Nozomi Takeda This paper examines recent trends in the Japanese labor market, with a particular focus on the elderly workforce. Japan's elderly employment rates are notably high compared to other OECD countries and have increased significantly over the past two decades. To investigate the factors that affect the employment of old individuals, we develop a structural life-cycle model with consumption-saving decisions and endogenous labor supply in both intensive and extensive margins. The model is calibrated to...

November 2025

The smart decision 20 years ago that saved a Japanese town

Akiyas are perhaps the most visible sign of the country’s ageing population, which has shrunk for 16 consecutive years as the fertility rate has collapsed and deaths have outpaced births. Hundreds of rural villages are at risk of disappearing in coming decades. There are about 9 million akiyas across Japan, even in major cities such as Tokyo and Osaka, but you need to venture only an hour or two outside metro areas to find them in abundance. In the village of...

UK. Radical reforms to State Pension system proposed as government battles rising bills – Steve Webb

Experts at pension consultancy LCP specialising in State Pension policy and in demographic trends have joined forces to recommend major changes to the State Pension system. LCP’s ideas have been fed into the Government’s review of the State Pension Age, and would help to square the circle between the need to increase pension ages and the need to avoid penalising those whose life expectancy is much lower than average. One key measure used by the Government to assess the sustainability...

Japan’s welfare crackdown targets foreign residents over unpaid pensions, health insurance

As Japan’s social contract comes under strain, Sanae Takaichi is moving swiftly on a campaign promise to make foreign residents shoulder their fair share of the health and pensions burden. The proposed reforms, set in motion just weeks after Takaichi’s historic appointment as the country’s first female prime minister, aim to address mounting public concern about inequality and the sustainability of its ageing welfare state. At her first ministerial meeting dedicated to issues regarding foreign nationals, Takaichi on Tuesday directed cabinet...

October 2025

Japan’s GPIF underlines impact shift in sustainability report

Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), the world’s largest pension fund with ¥260trn (€1.5trn) in assets under management, has taken a further step towards adoption of a more impact-oriented investment strategy with the publication of its latest ‘Sustainability Investment’ report. The name change for an annual publication previously known as an ESG report seeks to entrench GPIF’s move towards a more sustainability-linked investment strategy that considered social and environmental impact in addition to ESG-related measures. The shift in thinking was signalled in policies...