April 2018

Do People Really Want Freedom of Choice? Assessing Preferences of Pension Fund Participants

Reforms in private pension plans across the world are opening up more options for pension participants to make choices to suit their preferences. Freedom of choice is however not a unidimensional concept as it is commonly perceived by policy makers. People can value both the freedom to choose as well as the freedom not to choose This observation can have far-reaching implications for pension policy design. By using a unique panel survey among Dutch employees we are able to...

Selecting Directors Using Machine Learning

By Isil Erel, Léa H. Stern, Chenhao Tan, Michael S. Weisbach Can an algorithm assist firms in their hiring decisions of corporate directors? This paper proposes a method of selecting boards of directors that relies on machine learning. We develop algorithms with the goal of selecting directors that would be preferred by the shareholders of a particular firm. Using shareholder support for individual directors in subsequent elections and firm profitability as performance measures, we construct algorithms to make out-of-sample predictions...

Organizing Old Age Pensions for India's Informal Workers: A Case Study of a Sector-Driven Approach

By M.R. Narayana (University of Mysore) About 88 percent of India’s total labor force is composed of informal (officially labeled “unorganized”) workers. As many as 388 million such workers lack old age income security by way of a pension system. The Atal Pension Yojana (APY) is the latest contributory, national-level old age pension scheme for unorganized workers, with an entry age of 18–40 years. In other words, all current unorganized workers above the age of 40 are excluded. How could...

Organizing Old Age Pensions for India’s Informal Workers: A Case Study of a Sector-Driven Approach

By M.R. Narayana (University of Mysore) About 88 percent of India’s total labor force is composed of informal (officially labeled “unorganized”) workers. As many as 388 million such workers lack old age income security by way of a pension system. The Atal Pension Yojana (APY) is the latest contributory, national-level old age pension scheme for unorganized workers, with an entry age of 18–40 years. In other words, all current unorganized workers above the age of 40 are excluded. How could...

Retirement Drawdown Defaults: The Role of Implied Endorsement

By Jennifer Alonso-García (University of New South Wales (UNSW) - ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR)), Hazel Bateman (University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Actuarial Studies, Centre for Pensions and Superannuation), Johan Bonekamp (Tilburg University - Department of Econometrics & Operations Research), Ralph Stevens (CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis; CEPAR) This paper explores whether implied endorsement can serve as an explanation for the stickiness of retirement drawdown defaults. Using an experimental survey...

Why Do Defaults Affect Behavior? Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan

By Joshua Blumenstock, Michael Callen, Tarek Ghani We report on an experiment examining why default options impact behavior. By randomly assigning employees to different varieties of a salary-linked savings account, we find that default enrollment increases participation by 40 percentage points—an effect equivalent to providing a 50% matching incentive. We then use a series of experimental interventions to differentiate between explanations for the default effect, which we conclude is driven largely by present-biased preferences and the cognitive cost of thinking...

Italy: Toward a Growth-Friendly Fiscal Reform

By Michal Andrle (International Monetary Fund (IMF)), Shafik Hebous (International Monetary Fund), Alvar Kangur (International Monetary Fund (IMF)), Mehdi Raissi (International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Asia and Pacific Department) Published in late 2017, the Italian medium-term fiscal plan aims to achieve structural balanceby 2020, although concrete, high-quality measures to meet the target are yet to be specified.This paper seeks to contribute to the discussion by: (i) assessing spending patterns to identifyareas for savings (ii) evaluating the pension system (iii) analyzing the scope for...

On Welfare Effects of Increasing Retirement Age

By Krzysztof Makarski (National Bank of Poland; Warsaw School of Economics (SGH)) & Joanna Tyrowicz (National Bank of Poland; University of Warsaw) We develop an OLG model with realistic assumptions about longevity to analyze the welfare effects of raising the retirement age. We look at a scenario where an economy has a pay-as-you-go defined benefit scheme and compare it to a scenario with defined contribution schemes (funded or notional). We show that, initially, in both types of pension system schemes...

Faulty Transmissions: Howe Demographics Affect Monetary Policy in Canada

By Steve Ambler (University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM) - Centre de recherche sur l'emploi et les fluctuations économiques (CREFÉ)) & Jeremy Kronick (C.D. Howe Institute) Over the past decade, inflation in many countries has been tepid, despite rock-bottom interest rates and different forms of unconventional stimulative monetary policy, including quantitative easing. For its part, Canada has averaged 1.5 percent inflation over this period, below the 2 percent target. This Commentary asks what role demographics, in particular an aging population,...

Best Interests in the Long Term: Fiduciary Duties and ESG Integration

By Susan N. Gary (University of Oregon - School of Law) Two persistent misconceptions continue to affect the way fiduciaries think about sustainable investing: (1) fiduciary duties block a fiduciary investor from considering environmental and social factors and (2) if a fiduciary investor engages in sustainable or responsible investing, the portfolio will suffer financially. An examination of socially responsible investing, ESG integration (an investment process that involves consideration of material environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors together with traditional financial...