March 2020

Who Takes Advantage of Tax-Deferred Savings Programs? Evidence From Federal Income Tax Data

By David P. Richardson, David Joulfaian This paper provides insight into the attributes of wage-earning households that participate in tax-deferred retirement savings plans. Examining data from federal tax returns, we find that approximately 52 percent of individuals and 55 percent of households participated in a retirement savings program in 1996. Excluding households with wages within the 1996 poverty thresholds and individuals under age 21 or over age 70, the age-wage restricted participation rates were 66 percent and 79 percent...

Opting Out of Social Security: An Idea That’s Already Arrived

By David P. Richardson Under current law, workers can partially opt out of Social Security and reduce Medicare tax liability by accepting compensation in forms exempt from payroll taxes. Changing forms of compensation has an ambiguous effect on a worker's lifetime consumption possibilities. With respect to Medicare, all households are better off since they reduce tax contributions to a fixed benefit. For Social Security, the effect is ambiguous since the tax reduction implies future benefit reductions. Analyzing a hybrid...

Insurance against Long-Run Volatility Risk: Demand, Supply, and Pricing

By Chuck Fang Despite its importance implied in asset pricing and macroeconomic models, insurance against long-run volatility risk has received little empirical documentation regarding its demand, supply, or pricing. This paper bridges the gap. First, I show that households have directly purchased large quantities of insurance against long- run volatility risk through the minimum return guarantees available in variable annuities, a form of retail retirement and savings product offered by life insurance companies. Total net assets with such insurance...

Grouping Individual Investment Preferences in Retirement Savings: A Cluster Analysis of a USS Members Risk Attitude Survey

By David P. Blake, Mel Duffield, Ian Tonks, Alistair Haig, Dean Blower, Laura MacPhee Cluster analysis is used to identify homogeneous groups of members of USS in terms of risk attitudes. There are two distinct clusters of members in their 40s and 50s. One had previously ‘engaged’ with USS by making additional voluntary contributions. It typically had higher pay, longer tenure, less interest in ethical investing, lower risk capacity, a higher percentage of males, and a higher percentage of...

Pension Superpowers and Financial Markets in the Sino-American Century

By M. Nicolas J. Firzli In this primer published in the Feb. 2020 issue of Private Debt Investor (PDI), Nicolas J. Firzli, World Pensions Council, looks at how institutional asset owners will come to the fore in the new geo-economic context defined by renewed Sino-American "coopetition" across ASEAN countries, Australia, Eastern Europe and the MENA area, Brexit and the resurgence of one-nation conservatism in Britain, the slow, relative decline of the European Union and the secular rise of "Pension...

Social Security and Financial Security at Older Ages

By Jeffrey R. Brown, James J. Choi, Courtney Coile, Richard Woodbury Beginning in September 2003, the Retirement Research Center at the National Bureau of Economic Research conducted a coordinated series of investigations on Social Security in an environment of continually changing demographics, health trends, longevity, labor markets, economic conditions, and other factors. The Center has supported extensive collaborative research over a multiyear horizon to achieve a more fully integrated understanding of Social Security’s challenges and the changing environment in...

Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19

By Stefano Ramelli, Alexander F. Wagner This paper studies how markets adjust to the sudden and rapid emergence of previously neglected risks. It does so by analyzing the stock price effects of the 2019 novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Over the first two months of 2020, the health care industry did relatively well in China, the US, and several other countries. Transportation and Energy plummeted everywhere. Within industries, US firms reliant on Chinese inputs and those with a strong export...

Reverse Mortgages, Financial Inclusion, and Economic Development: Potential Benefit and Risks

By Peter Knaack, Margaret Miller, Fiona Stewart This paper examines the state of reverse mortgage markets in selected countries around the world and considers the potential benefits and risks of these products from a financial inclusion and economic benefit standpoint. Despite potentially increasing demand from aging societies -- combined with limited pension income -- a series of market failures constrain supply and demand. The paper discusses a series of market failures on the supply side, such as adverse selection,...

Employee Representation and the Risk of Corporate Pension Plans

By Nicola Heusel We analyze the effect of direct labour representation in supervisory boards on the risk of corporate pension plans.We exploit employee representation requirements mandated by German labour law and find that firms with parity employee representation reduce pension plan risk both in terms of funding as well as in terms of investment risk. Source: SSRN

Financial Operating Systems

By Dirk A. Zetzsche, William A. Birdthistle, Douglas W. Arner, Ross P. Buckley One of the most consequential and unexamined developments in global finance has been the recent emergence of massive concentrations of financial technology under the control of individual firms. These financial operating systems are, like computing operating systems, relatively inconspicuous yet extraordinarily powerful. They already dominate the world’s $50 trillion investment fund industry, where they play a critical role in asset management for pensions and institutional investors,...