March 2020

Pension Superpowers and Financial Markets in the Sino-American Century

By M. Nicolas J. Firzli In this primer published in the Feb. 2020 issue of Private Debt Investor (PDI), Nicolas J. Firzli, World Pensions Council, looks at how institutional asset owners will come to the fore in the new geo-economic context defined by renewed Sino-American "coopetition" across ASEAN countries, Australia, Eastern Europe and the MENA area, Brexit and the resurgence of one-nation conservatism in Britain, the slow, relative decline of the European Union and the secular rise of "Pension...

Social Security and Financial Security at Older Ages

By Jeffrey R. Brown, James J. Choi, Courtney Coile, Richard Woodbury Beginning in September 2003, the Retirement Research Center at the National Bureau of Economic Research conducted a coordinated series of investigations on Social Security in an environment of continually changing demographics, health trends, longevity, labor markets, economic conditions, and other factors. The Center has supported extensive collaborative research over a multiyear horizon to achieve a more fully integrated understanding of Social Security’s challenges and the changing environment in...

Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19

By Stefano Ramelli, Alexander F. Wagner This paper studies how markets adjust to the sudden and rapid emergence of previously neglected risks. It does so by analyzing the stock price effects of the 2019 novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Over the first two months of 2020, the health care industry did relatively well in China, the US, and several other countries. Transportation and Energy plummeted everywhere. Within industries, US firms reliant on Chinese inputs and those with a strong export...

Reverse Mortgages, Financial Inclusion, and Economic Development: Potential Benefit and Risks

By Peter Knaack, Margaret Miller, Fiona Stewart This paper examines the state of reverse mortgage markets in selected countries around the world and considers the potential benefits and risks of these products from a financial inclusion and economic benefit standpoint. Despite potentially increasing demand from aging societies -- combined with limited pension income -- a series of market failures constrain supply and demand. The paper discusses a series of market failures on the supply side, such as adverse selection,...

Employee Representation and the Risk of Corporate Pension Plans

By Nicola Heusel We analyze the effect of direct labour representation in supervisory boards on the risk of corporate pension plans.We exploit employee representation requirements mandated by German labour law and find that firms with parity employee representation reduce pension plan risk both in terms of funding as well as in terms of investment risk. Source: SSRN

Financial Operating Systems

By Dirk A. Zetzsche, William A. Birdthistle, Douglas W. Arner, Ross P. Buckley One of the most consequential and unexamined developments in global finance has been the recent emergence of massive concentrations of financial technology under the control of individual firms. These financial operating systems are, like computing operating systems, relatively inconspicuous yet extraordinarily powerful. They already dominate the world’s $50 trillion investment fund industry, where they play a critical role in asset management for pensions and institutional investors,...

Understanding Debt in the Older Population

By Annamaria Lusardi, Olivia S. Mitchell, Noemi Oggero Poor financial capability can have important consequences for wellbeing in later life. To explore aspects of financial management related to debt, we have designed and analyzed a new module in the 2018 Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We use these new data, along with information from the 2018 National Financial Capability Study (NFCS), to evaluate the factors associated with debt and debt management close to retirement. We show that a sizeable...

February 2020

Dynamic Incentives in Retirement Earnings-Replacement Benefits

By Andrés Dean, Sebastian Fleitas, KU Leuven, Mariana Zerpa Many defined-benefit pension systems in developed and developing countries use a small set of final years of earnings to compute pension benefits. This provides dynamic incentives to report higher earnings in the final years of the career. In this paper, we document the responses of self-employed and employed workers to these incentives, using social security administrative records and household surveys from Uruguay. We implement event studies that leverage the...

Millennial Generation: Information on the Economic Status of Millennial Households Compared to Previous Generations

By Charles A. Jeszeck, Michael J. Collins, Jessica Rider, Kathleen McQueeney, Layla Moughari Recent research indicates that, across three key measures, economic mobility in the United States is limited. Specifically, the Millennial generation (those born between 1982 and 2000) might not have the same opportunity as previous generations had to fare better economically than their parents. According to studies GAO reviewed, the share of people making more money than their parents at the same age (absolute mobility) has declined...

Poverty Reduction Among Older People Through Pensions: A Comparative Analysis

By Olaf van Vliet, Koen Caminada, Kees Goudswaard, Jinxian Wang Given the ageing of the populations in many Western countries, older people constitute an important group in the analysis of poverty. In this chapter, we examine the poverty incidence among older people across LIS countries, relying on data from the Luxembourg Income Study. The data show that poverty rates are substantially reduced by redistribution via tax/benefit systems (mainly via pension benefits). Furthermore, the data show that old-age poverty rates...