March 2019

The phony retirement crisis

By Andrew Biggs Contrary to the alarms, household savings are growing. But government plans are underfunded. Lawmakers are taking action to deal with the “retirement crisis.” More than 200 House Democrats are sponsoring a bill to expand Social Security benefits, funded by a dramatic increase in taxes. California, Connecticut, Illinois and Oregon have established state-run retirement plans for private sector-workers, which many progressives hope will supplant 401(k)s. But there is no retirement crisis among either today’s retirees or tomorrow’s. Eight in 10...

Early Access to Pension Savings : International Experience and Lessons Learnt

By Fiona Stewart, Himanshi Jain & Will Sandbrook The objectives of a well-designed pension system are poverty reduction in old age and income smoothing throughout an individuals' lifetime. Over the last thirty years, changing demographic trends have caused a shift from 'pay as you go' and occupational defined benefit (DB) schemes - where the obligation for paying for retirement income is with the state and employers - to defined contribution (DC) schemes, where the obligation to save for retirement rests...

The Feasibility of Reverse Mortgages in Japan

By Richard K. Green (University of Southern California - Lusk Center for Real Estate) & Linna Zhu (USC Sol Price School of Public Policy) This paper examines the feasibility of reverse mortgages in Japan by utilizing stochastic modeling to characterize the movements of three stochastic variables—interest rates, property values and mortality—underpinning the value of reverse mortgages. We use the yield curve to forecast future interest rates, taking into account the interest arbitrage condition and the term premium. We employ hedonic...

February 2019

Household Savings in Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe: How Do Poorer Households Save?

By Elisabeth Beckmann (Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB)) Based on a survey of households in 10 Central Eastern European and Western Balkan countries, this paper presents new and unique evidence on which households have savings and how they save. The paper shows that the percentage of savers is low, and savings are frequently informal. Formal savings are dominated by bank savings, and participation in contractual and capital market savings is very low in comparison to high-income countries. Poor households are significantly less...

Intergenerational Fairness: Will Our Kids Live Better than We Do

By Parisa Mahboubi (C.D. Howe Institute) While large government deficits and debt raise concerns regarding intergenerational fairness, their longterm intergenerational impacts can significantly differ, depending on demographic shifts and future economic policy. In particular, population aging in Canada has accelerated during the past decade due to declining fertility and improving life expectancy. This demographic transition poses new fiscal challenges since it dampens growth in government revenue while putting pressure on government spending, particularly in healthcare and public pensions. Generational accounting...

Managing Uncertainty: The Search for a Golden Discount-Rate Rule for Defined-Benefit Pensions

By Stuart Landon (University of Alberta - Department of Economics), Constance E. Smith (University of Alberta - Department of Economics)This Commentary examines how the choice of a pension plan discount rate affects the tradeoff between the risk of holding insufficient assets to pay promised benefits and the cost of acquiring more assets. The choice of discount rate can have a dramatic effect on the value of a plan’s liabilities and, therefore, the assets needed to meet plan obligations. When...

Hustle and Gig: Struggling and Surviving in the Sharing Economy

By Alexandrea J. Ravenelle Choose your hours, choose your work, be your own boss, control your own income. Welcome to the sharing economy, a nebulous collection of online platforms and apps that promise to transcend capitalism. Supporters argue that the gig economy will reverse economic inequality, enhance worker rights, and bring entrepreneurship to the masses. But does it?In Hustle and Gig, Alexandrea J. Ravenelle shares the personal stories of nearly eighty predominantly millennial workers from Airbnb, Uber, TaskRabbit, and Kitchensurfing. Their...

Assessing Economic Resources in Retirement: The Role of Irregular Withdrawals from Tax-Advantaged Retirement Accounts

By Michael D. Hurd (RAND Corporation; State University of New York at Stony Brook - College of Arts and Science - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)) & Susann Rohwedder (RAND Corporation) Irregular withdrawals from IRAs and DC pensions are not included in standard measures of household income in the CPS or Health and Retirement Study. Yet, among retirees such withdrawals can supplement regular retirement income to finance consumption. It has been difficult to assess their importance,...

The Future of Saving : The Role of Pension System Design in an Aging World

By David Amaglobeli,‎ Hua Chai,‎ Era Dabla-Norris,‎ Kamil Dybczak,‎ Mauricio Soto,‎ Alexander F. Tieman This SDN explores how demographic changes have affected and will affect public and private sector savings, highlighting the interaction between pension systems, labor markets, and demographic variables. Get the book HERE!

State Automatic Enrollment IRAs After the Trump Election: Are They Preempted by ERISA?

By Kathryn L. Moore (University of Kentucky College of Law) In recent years, a number of states have sought to close the retirement savings funding gap by enacting legislation mandating that employers that do not sponsor a voluntary pension plan for their employees automatically enroll their employees in a state-administered IRA program. This article focuses on the most serious legal challenge these programs face: ERISA preemption.  The article begins by providing an overview of the state automatic enrollment IRA programs....