September 2024

When the Abundance Ends: Economic Transformation, Population Aging, and Shrinking Lifecycle Surplus in China

By Feng Wang, Ke Shen & Yong Cai China’s age of abundance, driven by rapid increases in labor income and a favorable population age profile, led to a sizable surplus at the society level. Using the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) approach, this study updates results published in this journal a decade ago. It traces changes in labor income and consumption patterns in China in the 2010s, and compares them with those in the decade prior. Our results report significant shifts...

Jamaica. Low birth rate could affect country’s development goals

RESPECTED former public servant Reginald Budhan says if the fall in Jamaica’s birth rate continues unabated, the island’s vision for developed country status “will remain a dream”. Jamaica’s Population Health Status Report 2000–2022, which was tabled in Parliament in May, showed that the country continues to face a low birth rate problem with the total number of live births in the country declining sharply over the last 20 years. Overall, it said Jamaica’s crude birth rate, which is the number...

Japan faces labor shortages and demographic crisis as elderly population hits record high

Japan commemorated its “Respect for the Aged Day” earlier this week, with the national holiday underscoring a somewhat problematic fact — the country has a record number of elderly citizens to celebrate. Government data released ahead of the event showed that Japan’s population aged 65 and over had risen to an all-time high of 36.25 million. While the country’s overall population has been declining, the segment of those aged 65 and above has grown to 29.3% of the population, the highest...

Care-Dependent Target Benefit Pension Plan with Minimum Liability Gap

By Ruotian Ti, Ximin Rong, Cheng Tao & Hui Zhao With the progressive aging of populations, the significance of long-term care (LTC) services in aging societies is growing. In this paper, we integrate LTC services with pensions, studying a stochastic model for a care-dependent target benefit pension (TBP) plan. The plan members' target benefit rates are set according to the care cost for three different health states, i.e., healthy, mildly disabled and severely disabled states. And the pension contributions reflect...

Working till your 70s — Japan’s prospective gift to the world

Japanese people are living longer, but with a struggling pension system and the highest inflation in decades, more are delaying retirement until their 70s or later to make ends meet. Michie Hino is one of them. She works at an elderly care home east of Tokyo, where she spends eight hours a day cleaning the facility and washing laundry even though she’s 77 years old herself. She’s part of the workforce supporting Japan’s growing ranks of aged and infirm. Her monthly...

US. The Economic Implications Of Aging Boomers And Emerging Millennials

More than 4 million Baby Boomers, born 1946-1964, are reaching 65 each year through 2027, and they are exiting the labor force in droves. Meanwhile, the core labor force is growing at a snail’s pace. Since 2000, the population of 25- to 54-year-olds has grown by only 7%. How the U.S. manages these converging demographic trends will be a monumental challenge in the years ahead. With an aging population, the government will face higher obligations for medical and Social Security costs. There will be fewer workers...

China. More benefits could be doled out to incentivize couples to have more babies

Many countries in the world now face a shrinking, and simultaneously aging, population, which, if not promptly reversed or mitigated, could negatively impact the sustainable growth of their economies. A sufficient number of people is indispensable for running and reinforcing the operation of a functioning economy. Consequently, policymakers or relevant government authorities need to take note of the evolution of the ongoing changes of demographic patterns, and readjust and optimize their population policies so as to plan for a resilient...

August 2024

The geopolitical ripple effect of Asia’s ageing population

By 2050, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), one in four people in Asia will be aged over 60. This is a threefold increase compared to 2010. China, the economic powerhouse of the region, is projected to see a decrease of 220 million working-age individuals between 2011 and 2050. Japan’s population is expected to decline by 16 per cent by 2050, with the number of senior citizens living alone predicted to jump by 47 per cent. This demographic shift has far-reaching implications that demand the immediate...

US. National Center to Reframe Aging partners with SAGE USA to enhance advocacy for LGBTQ+ elders

The National Center to Reframe Aging — which provides expertise in effective communication strategies surrounding aging issues — has established a strategic partnership with SAGE USA. This collaboration aims to educate SAGE leadership and the SAGE National Resource Center (NRC) on LGBTQ+ Aging on the principles of reframing aging. The National Center to Reframe Aging will be a strategic partner supporting the SAGE National Resource Center on LGBTQ+ in their efforts to reframe their education and advocacy communications on aging. The team will provide...

Brazil’s population decline will happen sooner than predicted

The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has periodically published findings from the 2022 Census. The population count flagged the fast and steep aging of the Brazilian population, and new projections from the IBGE now show just how steep this process is. According to the new calculations, which factor in indicators such as fertility rate (number of births per woman), life expectancy, and migration, the Brazilian population will increase from the current 203 million inhabitants to 220 million in 2041 — when it...