October 2024

Europe’s population crisis could shave 4% off its GDP by 2040, Morgan Stanley warns, and the options to solve it aren’t good

Europe’s demographic challenges are becoming a ticking time bomb for the region’s economy, with Morgan Stanley delivering a grim prediction for its effects on GDP. Morgan Stanley says Europe’s aging population could shave 4% off the Eurozone’s GDP by 2040 as people live longer and birth rates fall. The bank projects a significant loss of GDP based on predictions that Europe’s working-age population will shrink by 6.5% by 2040, due to a reduction in the number of working-age people producing output...

Deep Dive: China raises retirement ages as birth rate drops and ageing population grows

Deep Dive delves into hot issues in Hong Kong and mainland China. Our easy-to-read articles provide context to grasp what’s happening, while our questions help you craft informed responses. Check sample answers at the end of the page. News: China raises retirement age as it battles economic slump Country’s top legislative body announced the move as a way to deal with its ageing population of workers More people are set to retire than to enter the workforce, putting China’s pension...

Despite medical advances, life expectancy gains are slowing

We’ve seen dramatic increases in life expectancy over the 19th and 20th centuries, thanks to healthier diets, medical advances and many other quality-of-life improvements. But after nearly doubling over the course of the 20th century, the rate of increase has slowed considerably in the last three decades, according to a new study led by the University of Illinois Chicago. Despite frequent breakthroughs in medicine and public health, life expectancy at birth in the world’s longest-living populations has increased only an average...

September 2024

Interview: “Focusing on well-being over numbers is solution to low birth rates”

The United Nations Population Division announced in November 2022 that the global population had surpassed 8 billion. This marks a doubling from 4 billion in 1974, a span of just 48 years. The world’s population exceeded 2 billion in 1927 and 1 billion in 1805. Over just 200 years, the global population has increased eightfold. However, the UN forecasts that due to a general slowdown in growth rates, the world population will reach 9 billion by 2037. Population growth has...

State pension programs feel the strain of aging populations

In a nutshell Aging populations mean more retirees, pressuring state budgets State-funded pensions are likely to expand into basic-income schemes A rise in productivity is the only cure; but it remains elusive Politicians do not pay much attention to demography. Given their electoral horizons, this is hardly surprising. The so-called demographic crisis and its consequences unfold over decades, while in most countries elections of some sort take place at least every two years. Little heed is paid to whether, in...

EU. Who can expect the most healthy life years?

In 2022, the number of healthy life years at birth in the EU was 62.6 years on average, 62.8 years for women and 62.4 years for men. Life expectancy at birth for women in the EU was, on average, 5.4 years longer than that for men (83.3 years compared with 77.9 years). Healthy life years - free from activity limitations - represent 75% and 80% of the total life expectancy for women and men, respectively. Therefore, on average, men tend to spend a greater proportion...

China’s retirement age reforms not enough to fix pension headache

China's move to raise retirement ages is a starting point to plug gaping pension deficits and bolster a shrinking workforce but more pain lies ahead as the economy slows, making further reforms urgent, say economists and demographers. Aging populations are a global phenomenon, but the issue is particularly stark in China due to the legacy of its one-child-policy, which was in place for three decades and has exacerbated its demographic challenges. China’s number of births dropped to 9 million last year and the...

Korea promotes positive images of older workers amid aging population

As Korea is expected to become a super-aged society next year, with more than 20 percent of the population being 65 years or older, the government is stepping up efforts to promote positive images of older workers. The Ministry of Health and Welfare said on Monday that it will run a weeklong campaign to raise awareness of its efforts to create jobs for older adults and help improve perceptions of those who remain active in the labor market in the...

When the Abundance Ends: Economic Transformation, Population Aging, and Shrinking Lifecycle Surplus in China

By Feng Wang, Ke Shen & Yong Cai China’s age of abundance, driven by rapid increases in labor income and a favorable population age profile, led to a sizable surplus at the society level. Using the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) approach, this study updates results published in this journal a decade ago. It traces changes in labor income and consumption patterns in China in the 2010s, and compares them with those in the decade prior. Our results report significant shifts...

Jamaica. Low birth rate could affect country’s development goals

RESPECTED former public servant Reginald Budhan says if the fall in Jamaica’s birth rate continues unabated, the island’s vision for developed country status “will remain a dream”. Jamaica’s Population Health Status Report 2000–2022, which was tabled in Parliament in May, showed that the country continues to face a low birth rate problem with the total number of live births in the country declining sharply over the last 20 years. Overall, it said Jamaica’s crude birth rate, which is the number...