May 2021

Trends in Labor Supply of Older Men and the Role of Social Security

By Zhixiu Yu The labor supply of older men increased from the 1930s to the 1950s cohort. I estimate a structural model that fits the participation and hours worked by the 1930s cohort well. The observed policy changes in normal retirement age, the earnings test, and delayed retirement credits explain 73.4% and 88.7% of the observed rises in labor force participation and hours worked by the 1950s cohort. Additional policy experiments suggest that postponing retirement age have little effect on...

Differences and Similarities in Patterns of Society Ageing in the European Union

By Denisa Kočanová, Viliam Kováč, Jan Buleca Population ageing is a demographic problem, which emphasises the need to be interested in the lives of the most vulnerable group–the elderly. The paper investigates the ageing process and similarity of selected countries in the European Union. The EU Member States were assessed and assigned to appropriate clusters according to several indicators related to the areas that affect the lives of the elderlies, namely health status, labour market conditions, and financial security. We...

Prospective Longevity

By Warren C. Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov From two leading experts, a revolutionary new way to think about and measure aging. Aging is a complex phenomenon. We usually think of chronological age as a benchmark, but it is actually a backward way of defining lifespan. It tells us how long we’ve lived so far, but what about the rest of our lives? In this pathbreaking book, Warren C. Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov provide a new way to measure individual and population aging. Instead...

China Population and Development Studies

By CPDRC, CPA This journal provides an international platform for discussions on topics related to various population phenomena and development issues, complemented by a strong representation of the research trend and achievement in China and other Asian countries. The journal, hosted by China Population and Development Research Center, draws on the energetic and resourceful Chinese research community as well as in close contact with the Asian research community in the area, features the Asian perspective on the field of population...

Aging and Wages of Older Workers in Japan

By Quoc Hung Nguyen We first theoretically argue that labor force aging leads to a fall in the relative wage of older workers based on the Tinbergen's labor supply-demand framework. Using data from Japan's Basic Survey on Wage Structure and Population Census across 47 prefectures, we then estimate that a 10% increase in the relative number of workers aged 55 and older leads to a fall in their corresponding relative wage in a range of 3.5% to 4.3%. This equivalently...

April 2021

Population aging and comparative advantage

By Jie Cai, Andrey Stoyanov In this paper we show that demographic differences between countries are a source of comparative advantage in international trade. Since many skills are age-dependent, population aging decreases the relative supply and increases the relative price of skills which depreciate with age. Thus, industries relying on skills in which younger workers are relatively more efficient will be more productive in countries with a younger labor force and less productive in countries with an older population. Building upon the neuroscience and economics...

Reference Points for Retirement Behavior: Evidence from German Pension Discontinuities

By Arthur Seibold This paper documents and analyzes an important and puzzling stylized fact about retirement behavior: the large concentration of job exits at specific ages. In Germany, almost 30% of workers retire precisely in the month when they reach one of three statutory retirement ages, although there is often no incentive or even a disincentive to retire at these thresholds. To study what can explain the concentration of retirements around statutory ages, I use novel administrative data covering the...

March 2021

Delivering prevention in an ageing world: Democratising access to prevention – Consultation paper

By International Longevity Centre UK Following our year-long Prevention in an ageing world programme that sparked conversations from Abu Dhabi to Taipei, Austin, Geneva, Sydney, London all the way to the G20 Health Ministers, the message is clear. It’s never too late to prevent. And the health and economic costs of failing to invest in preventative interventions across the life course are simply too high to ignore. We know that prevention works, but for too long cultural, economic and geographic divides...

February 2021

Late-career Unemployment Shocks, Pension Outcomes and Unemployment Insurance

By Samir Elsadek Mahmoudi In response to unemployment shocks, older workers deplete their 401(k)s, particularly after the waiving of the early withdrawal penalty on unemployment-motivated withdrawals at age 55. This paper shows that Unemployment Insurance (UI) keeps older workers from depleting their 401(k) assets following job losses. UI also incentivizes older unemployed workers to delay claiming their Social Security (SS) benefits beyond the earliest age of eligibility, 62. Overall, UI enhances the retirement income of the individuals having a history...

January 2021

Olivia S. Mitchell, PhD: Calibrating Retirement Planning with Current Conditions

By Olivia S. Mitchell In September 2020, Robert Powell, editor-in-chief of the Retirement Management Journal, Jason Fichtner, PhD, senior lecturer at the Johns Hopkins University; and Anna Rappaport, FSA, MAAA, chair of the Society of Actuaries Committee on Post-Retirement Needs and Risks, spoke with Mitchell about how longer lifespans and prolonged retirement periods are requiring adjustments to Social Security benefits, employee pension plans, and individual retirement savings. Source: SSRN