January 2025

Retirement Consumption and Pension Design

By Jonas Kolsrud, Camille Landais, Daniel Reck & Johannes Spinnewijn This paper analyzes consumption to evaluate the distributional effects of pension reforms. Using Swedish administrative data, we show that on average workers who retire earlier consume less while retired and experience larger drops in consumption around retirement. Interpreted via a theoretical model, these findings imply that reforms incentivizing later retirement incur a substantial consumption-smoothing cost. Turning to other features of pension policy, we find that reforms that redistribute based on...

Retirees Relocate for Income Tax Exemptions

By Linda Gorman In 2013, the Portuguese government offered foreign retirees relocating to Portugal a 10-year tax exemption on their foreign-source pension income, provided their country of origin had a tax treaty with Portugal. As the number of immigrant retirees grew, the amount of forgone income taxes grew, reaching €1.5 billion, or about 0.6 percent of GDP, by 2021. In that year, the tax exemption was replaced by a 10 percent rate. In 2024, the exemption was repealed. Source National Bureau...

December 2024

Retirement Incentives and Decisions across the Income Distribution: Evidence in Canada

By Kevin S. Milligan & Tammy Schirle We evaluate the retirement incentives embedded in Canada’s retirement income system with attention to where individuals are located in the income distribution. We find that larger social security benefits are available to individuals with lower earnings in their work history because of the benefit income tests, but those from the top of the income distribution tend to enjoy longer lives over which they may receive benefits. Overall, we see greater Social Security Wealth...

OECD Pensions Outlook 2024: Improving Asset-backed Pensions for Better Retirement Outcomes and More Resilient Pension Systems

By Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Over the past two decades, asset-backed pensions have become a key pillar of retirement systems, with assets more than tripling to over USD 56 trillion in 2023. These pensions diversify resources for financing retirement and complement pay-as-you-go systems, enhancing resilience to economic shocks and demographic challenges. Their robust design, regulation, and supervision are important for delivering strong retirement outcomes. The 2024 OECD Pensions Outlook provides a valuable resource for policymakers, regulators, and stakeholders, providing comprehensive analysis...

November 2024

Megatrends and the Future of Social Protection

By Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Ageing populations, changing labour markets, and climate change are affecting economies and societies across OECD countries. What challenges do these “megatrends” pose for social protection systems? What are the implications of these trends for the coverage, the effectiveness, and – critically – the funding of social protection today and tomorrow? With an eye towards informing future reforms, this report presents a broad stocktaking of population ageing, changing patterns of labour supply, new and emerging...

Financial Inclusion and the Informal Sector

By Noha Emara, Freddy Cama & Mohamed Trabelsi This paper explores the relationship between the informal sector and financial inclusion for a sample of 186 countries across the period 2004-2018 and using various methods of estimations—ordinary least squares, instrumental variables, fixed effects, and general method of moments. The results show financial inclusion significantly reduces the size of the shadow economy with all indicators of access and usage of financial services. The result is also robust when considering the income level,...

Pension Liquidity Risk

By Kristy Jansen, Sven Klingler, Angelo Ranaldo & Patty Duijm Pension funds rely on interest rate swaps to hedge the interest rate risk arising from their liabilities. Analyzing unique data on Dutch pension funds, we show that this hedging behavior exposes pension funds to liquidity risk due to margin calls, which can be as large as 15% of their total assets. Our analysis uncovers three key findings: (i) pension funds with tighter regulatory constraints use swaps more aggressively; (ii) in...

Pension’s Resource-Time Trade-Off: The Role of Inequalities in the Design of Retirement Schemes

By Renaud Bourlès & Santiago Lopez-Cantor Public pension schemes serve as mechanisms for inter-temporal income smoothing and within-cohort redistribution. This paper examines the influence of income and lifespan inequalities on the structure of a democratically chosen pension scheme. We use a probabilistic voting model where agents vote on the size and the degree of redistribution (i.e. the Beveridgean factor) of pension and can supplement it with voluntary contributions. Our analysis reveals that when all agents can supplement the public scheme...

October 2024

Rules of Thumb and Retirement Accounts

By Vanya Horneff, David A. Love & Raimond Maurer We examine the welfare costs of applying common rules of thumb for saving, investment, 401k contributions, and withdrawals in an environment that includes a realistic treatment of taxation, Social Security benefits, 401k-plan details, and uncertainty in income, longevity, and asset returns. We test the performance of commonly recommended rules, such as investing 100-minus-age percent of assets in stocks, contributing 6–10% of income to a 401k account, or withdrawing the required minimum...

Reverse Mortgages, Financial Inclusion, and Economic Development: Potential Benefit and Risks

By Peter Knaack, Margaret Miller & Fiona Stewart This paper examines the state of reverse mortgage markets in selected countries around the world and considers the potential benefits and risks of these products from a financial inclusion and economic benefit standpoint. Despite potentially increasing demand from aging societies—combined with limited pension income—a series of market failures constrain supply and demand. The paper discusses a series of market failures on the supply side, such as adverse selection, moral hazard, and the costly...