April 2025

Optimal Investment-Consumption and Retirement Choice with Labor and Pension Incomes

By Hyun Jin Jang & Seon Hwa Lee This study examines lifetime optimal investment, consumption, and retirement timing decisions under a heterogeneous consumption utility function and the presence of pension earnings. Using the duality method, we derive the optimal wealth, investment-consumption strategies, and voluntary retirement region. Through simulation analysis, we assess the impact of pensions on these decisions. Our findings highlight the critical role of pensions in retirement planning, alongside wages and labor costs. Notably, pension benefits encourage earlier voluntary...

Unequal Inflationary Effects of Tariffs across Socio-Demographic Groups

By Hakan Yilmazkuday This paper investigates the heterogeneous effects of U.S. tariffs on inflation across socio-demographic groups, utilizing a structural vector autoregression model that controls for oil prices, output growth, policy rates, and exchange rates. The aggregate tariff pass-through to inflation is estimated at 0.51, with tariffs accounting for approximately 17% of overall inflation volatility. Disaggregated analysis reveals significant variation, where tariff pass-through ranges from 0.38 to 0.55 across income percentiles, with higher income groups experiencing greater pass-through and a...

Tariffs, Tokens, and Turmoil: The Market Fallout from Trump’s Policy Uncertainty

By David Krause This paper investigates the financial consequences of economic policy shifts following President Trump's second inauguration in January 2025. Using empirical data from April 2024 through April 7, 2025, this study assesses asset performance across U.S. equities, cryptocurrencies, gold, and bonds. The administration's aggressive trade protectionism, ambiguous digital asset directives, and deregulatory approach to artificial intelligence have triggered heightened market volatility, diminished investor confidence, and a rotation toward defensive assets. Indexed returns reveal that traditional safe havens like...

La pensión como una medida de protección social para reducir la desigualdad. Repensando el sistema peruano

Por Renata Carranza Acevedo & Julia Romero Herrera  En la tarea de los Estados de garantizar los derechos fundamentales y paliar la desigualdad existen una serie de opciones; una de ellas, la implementación de políticas orientadas a mejorar el nivel de vida de la población; es aquí donde se erige el concepto de seguridad social, pero no entendida como política social impregnada por el asistencialismo sino como una estrategia de gestión del Estado, en la comprensión que la seguridad social...

Encuesta de Pensiones 2024: Anhelos y preocupaciones ciudadanas ante una reforma inminente

Por Organización Internacional del Trabajo & Programa de las Naciones Unidad para el Desarrollo  A nivel general, se observa tres fenómenos: Una altísima demanda para que el actual Congreso concrete un acuerdo (89,6% en 2024, 86% en 2023), la asignación de responsabilidades a autoridades políticas y a grupos de interés por la falta de avance en la reforma (52% de las menciones a responsabilidades políticas1 y 29% a las AFP) y una preferencia por un sistema de pensiones mixto, que...

Informe Sobre el Estado de la Protección Social 2025. El Desafío de 2 Mil Millones de Personas

Por Banco Mundial  En la última década, los países de ingreso bajo y medio han logrado ampliar sus sistemas de protección social para abarcar a una cifra récord de 4700 millones de personas. En estos países, tres de cada cuatro personas pertenecen a hogares que reciben actualmente algún tipo de transferencia de protección social o tienen acceso a ella a través de sus contribuciones previas. Alcanzar este logro no fue una tarea fácil. Sin embargo, a pesar de los aumentos...

Postponing Retirement Under Age Discrimination and Grandparenting

By Leqing Huang To tackle the population aging and improve the sustainability of the pension system, the Chinese government proposes to postpone the statutory retirement age gradually. However, when implementing this policy in China, age discrimination in the job market and grandchild care culture are two potential concerns. Therefore, this paper builds a multi-period OLG model with these two crucial factors to provide a quantitative evaluation of the potential policy impacts on population growth, labor supply, and pension funds. The...

Conversion in the Act on Future Pensions, sailing to safe harbour?

By Hans van Meerten & Adrienn Pásztor This article explores the transformation of rights and entitlements during the transition to a new Dutch pension system within the second pillar for occupational pension schemes. It provides an examination of various national legal challenges such as the contractual basis and retrospective nature of this conversion process, alongside relevant aspects of European law including property rights and effective legal protection under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and the Charter of Fundamental...

Robots and Informal Employment in China

By Haiyan Lin This paper examines labor adjustments between the informal and formal sectors in response to the adoption of industrial robots in China. Using a longitudinal household data from 2010 to 2018, I find that robotization increases informal employment. Quantitatively, one more robot per thousand workers increases the share of informal employment by 1.16 percentage points. The reallocation is not driven by new entrants or re-entrants, but by workers initially employed in the formal sector. Displaced formal workers tend...

ESG KPI report 2025. Managing what you measure

By Invest Europe Tackling climate change and standing strong on responsible investment themes, such as diversity and zero tolerance to corruption, are among the greatest challenges – and responsibilities – facing the European private equity industry today. These considerations are not only at the forefront of policymakers’ and investors’ minds, but also ever more central to consumers when they decide how to spend their money. We are firm believers in the saying that you cannot manage what you don’t measure. With...